Lending and chasing rallies lead to reversals, with BTC technicals falling into a passive situation

Current BTC price has fallen to $66,280, down 2.22% over the past 24 hours. Behind this decline is not only a comprehensive technical breakdown but also a concentrated outbreak of lending risks. Many investors who borrowed to buy the dip have been liquidated during this correction, sharply increasing market risk sentiment.

High-Leverage Dip Buying Fails, Bullish Liquidation Wave Surges

During the high-price period, many investors used borrowed funds to enter the market, hoping to profit from a rebound in the $76,000–$78,000 range. However, as the price broke below $76,000, these long positions financed by borrowing were forcibly liquidated. According to statistics, daily liquidation amounts have reached billions of dollars, most victims being “gamblers” who previously used leverage to chase gains.

Listed companies like MicroStrategy, which borrowed large sums to buy BTC, have also become market concerns. Although their CEO continues to insist on holding, such worries alone are enough to scare off bullish traders, creating a vicious cycle.

Four-Cycle Technicals Weakening Across the Board, Heavy Pressure

On the daily chart, the price is being suppressed by the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, forming a clear bearish alignment. The MACD indicator is deep below the zero line, with green bars shrinking but not yet turning red. The RSI has fallen to 22.5, in oversold territory, indicating intense selling pressure. The brief rebound yesterday from $76,000–$77,000 was quickly cut short due to stop-losses triggered by leveraged traders.

The 4-hour chart also shows weakness; every attempt at a rebound to the 5-day moving average is immediately met with resistance, as if hitting an invisible wall. Although the MACD green bars are gradually narrowing, it has not yet turned positive. The 1-hour chart shows price oscillating between $76,000 and $78,000, with bulls and bears fighting for control, but overall still in a “pause after decline” state, not a true reversal signal.

News and Sentiment Worsen, Lending Risks Intensify

Rumors of the Federal Reserve potentially replacing its chair with a more “hawkish” candidate have triggered market panic. Hawkish policies tend to tighten liquidity, directly pressuring risk assets like Bitcoin. Gold and US stocks are also falling simultaneously, confirming the seriousness of these concerns.

Liquidated leveraged traders are fleeing en masse, further increasing selling pressure. Institutional investors who relied on borrowing to maintain positions are forced to close out due to liquidation threats, creating a cascade effect. This lending storm is reshaping the market participant structure.

Key Focus for Observation: Beware of Leverage Traps

Core judgment: The overall trend remains downward. Any short-term rebound is merely a technical correction after excessive decline and should not be mistaken for a trend reversal. Bad news outweighs good news; lending risks are still fermenting.

Technically, pay close attention to:

Resistance above at $78,500–$79,000. If price volume breaks through this zone, it could signal a change in the short-term downtrend. However, given the current liquidation strength, such a breakout is unlikely.

Support below at $76,000–$75,500. If this level fails to hold, further downside could open up to lower levels. For those maintaining positions via borrowing, losing this support could trigger a new wave of forced liquidations.

In the current environment, leverage has become the greatest uncertainty in the market. Even if technical signs suggest a rebound, they are unlikely to withstand the selling pressure from liquidated leveraged positions. Caution and patience are the wisest strategies right now.