First Capital Futures: Market sentiment is poor, aluminum prices are falling, supported by demand

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-01T19:09:48+00:00

Aluminum prices fell sharply today and then rebounded after approaching 23,000, remaining within the expected range. As the Spring Festival approaches, funds are hesitant to short. Aluminum oxide experienced a significant surge, approaching 2,900 yuan, but the spot market showed oversupply, mainly due to transportation restrictions during the Spring Festival. Arbitrage funds are influencing the trends of aluminum and aluminum oxide, with a still bearish outlook on aluminum oxide.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-01 19:09:48

Abstract generation in progress

Concerns about the overseas market continue to rise. Today, aluminum prices opened lower and then sharply declined, approaching 23,000 yuan, with a drop of over 2% at one point, but then rebounded in a V-shape. Although aluminum prices remain under pressure at high levels, overall performance shows they are still operating between 23,000 and 24,000 yuan, within expected ranges. The overall market logic has not changed, and as the Spring Festival approaches, funds are hesitant to aggressively short. In contrast, alumina has experienced a rare significant rally, currently approaching 2,900 yuan, up over 2%. However, the spot market has not followed the futures trend, still showing oversupply, with limited impact from transportation due to the upcoming holiday. We believe the main factor between the two is the performance of arbitrage funds—specifically, the previous long aluminum and short alumina arbitrage has ended, leading to abnormal market conditions. For alumina, we still maintain a bearish outlook. (First Capital Futures)

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