#XAUT Short-term (1-3 days): If the Middle East conflict persists or Iran launches a counterattack, the safe-haven premium will further expand, and gold prices are expected to quickly surge to 5500-5600; if diplomatic negotiations, ceasefire declarations, and other signals of easing emerge, market sentiment will cool rapidly, and gold prices may retrace to 5400 or even 5300.

Medium-term (1-2 weeks): If the conflict continues to escalate, demand for gold as a safe haven will sustain high levels of support for gold prices; if the situation eases, market sentiment will return to rationality, and gold prices will once again be dominated by Federal Reserve policies and economic data.

The current increase in gold prices is only the market’s initial panic pricing in response to the “conflict outbreak.” The safe-haven premium is dynamic and not a one-step process, with potential fluctuations of “buying on expectations, selling on facts”: if the conflict remains limited to US-Iran strikes, the current rise has largely priced in most expectations; but if it escalates to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, full-scale Iranian counterattacks, or regional war, then the current increase will be far from enough. The safe-haven and inflation dual premiums will continue to expand, and the 5500-5600 range is just a conservative target, with further upside potential.

The core risks in the current situation lie in Iran’s retaliatory actions, the “ultimate trump card” of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and the depth of U.S. aircraft carrier battle group involvement. Two scenario analyses:

- Limited conflict probability is about 40%, with the US and Iran only maintaining limited strikes and diplomatic negotiations. Gold is likely to fluctuate within the 5400-5500 range, with limited further upside.
- Over-expected escalation probability is about 60%, with Iran launching a full-scale counterattack or blockade of the strait, and deep U.S. involvement. Driven by both safe-haven demand and inflation concerns, gold prices are expected to quickly break through 5500, aiming for 5600-5800.