Zhang Yaoxi: Tariffs and ongoing geopolitical risks remain, and the outlook for gold prices continues to be bullish.

Zhang Yaoxi: Continued geopolitical risks keep tariffs in focus; gold price outlook remains bullish
On the previous trading day, Wednesday (February 25): International gold prices initially rose then retraced, closing with a bullish line, but failed to hold steady and recover Tuesday’s decline, indicating short-term volatility and a potential downward correction. However, numerous support levels are present below, and the overall trend is gradually moving higher in a oscillating manner. Therefore, if a correction occurs and prices dip, approaching support at various moving averages, it remains a primarily bullish outlook.
In terms of specific movement, gold opened in Asia at $5143.28 per ounce, briefly hit a daily low of $5120.96, then rebounded and continued to fluctuate. After the US session, it reached a daily high of $5217.39, but by the close, it dropped sharply again, ending at $5165.06. The daily range was $96.43, closing up $21.78, a gain of 0.42%.
The influence came from technical support buying, as well as tensions ahead of the next round of nuclear talks with Iran and U.S. military build-up, along with Iran’s ongoing nuclear ambitions, which supported gold and silver prices. However, the prospect of the U.S. maintaining interest rates unchanged in the short term could pose resistance to gold. Additionally, as risk appetite improves and stock markets rise, the demand for safe-haven assets diminishes. U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, limiting bullish momentum in gold, leading to a retreat and closing lower.

Looking ahead to Thursday (February 26): International gold opened stronger, supported by the 5-day moving average and ongoing U.S. trade policy uncertainties, as U.S. Trade Representative Grier indicated that a 15% tariff announcement would be made, and tariffs remain in effect, providing support for gold prices.
Thus, under the combined support of U.S. tariff-induced inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions ahead of Iran nuclear negotiations, the overall bias remains bullish.
Overall, given policymakers’ concerns about persistently high U.S. inflation, markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady until at least June. Federal funds futures project only about 53 basis points of rate cuts this year, roughly two 25-basis-point reductions, with the first cut possibly in July or September. This indicates that a rate-cut cycle is still underway, with timing uncertain, supporting a bullish phase for gold.
Additionally, PDR Gold ETF holdings as of February 25 increased to 1097.62 tons, up 3.43 tons from the previous trading day, reaching a new high since February 2021. This accumulation signals strong institutional confidence in gold’s long-term value.

Therefore, this year’s gold market is in a window of opportunity amid tariffs, inflation, and Iran’s nuclear crisis. In the short term, there may be consolidation in spring, but any declines or adjustments will likely be quickly offset by uncertainties. Against the backdrop of ongoing global uncertainties, gold’s role as a safe-haven asset and trust anchor remains prominent. Gold prices are expected to stay in a bullish trend throughout the year, and over the next year, with the Federal Reserve’s easing policies, a relatively weak dollar, and unresolved geopolitical risks, gold could potentially break above $6,000.
On a technical monthly basis, after continuing the bearish reversal in February following January’s decline, gold found support at the upward trendline that was broken earlier in the year, rebounded, and maintained within a new bull market space. It also remains above the 5-month moving average, indicating that the bearish correction in January has been exhausted, and the new bullish outlook remains valid. The trend is expected to strengthen and rise again.
On the daily chart, bullish momentum today weakened but remains above the 5-day moving average, with multiple support levels below. The indicator chart also shows bullish signals, suggesting a higher probability of continued strength. Therefore, trading should focus on buying dips, with support at various moving averages indicating potential for further gains.

Gold: Support levels around $5130 or $5080; resistance levels near $5230 or $5300.
Silver: Support levels around $87.30 or $85.00; resistance levels near $91.40 or $92.70.
Note:
Gold TD = (International gold price × exchange rate) / 31.1035
A $1 fluctuation in international gold prices roughly causes a $0.25 change in Gold TD (theoretical).
US gold futures price = London spot price × (1 + gold swap rate × futures days / 365)
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The above opinions and analysis reflect only the author’s personal views, for reference only, not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
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