Unfazed by AI concerns? Multiple Wall Street investment banks raise target prices for NVIDIA: Could March bring a turning point?

After the close on Wednesday Eastern Time, NVIDIA announced a strong Q4 earnings report. Despite the impressive results, its stock price was hit in the U.S. stock market: NVIDIA’s stock fell approximately 5.5% on Thursday and another 4.2% on Friday.

No matter how strong the earnings report is, NVIDIA’s stock price crashing after the release seems to have become the norm. This phenomenon is also jokingly called the “NVIDIA Curse.” A few months ago, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang joked about this at an all-hands meeting after the Q3 earnings release:

“If our Q3 performance is poor, it proves there’s an AI bubble; if our Q3 performance is excellent, it just fuels the AI bubble.”

However, despite the stock price plunging, many Wall Street investment banks remain confident in NVIDIA’s prospects. Following the earnings release, analysts from Bank of America, Citigroup, and Truist Financial raised their target prices for NVIDIA and reaffirmed their positive outlook on the company.

Bank of America: NVIDIA Will Become the Most Reliable AI Supplier

After NVIDIA’s earnings report, Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya and his team raised their non-GAAP EPS forecasts for NVIDIA for fiscal years 2027, 2028, and 2029 by 5%, 10%, and 13%, respectively, to $8.11, $10.72, and $13.18. They reaffirmed a buy rating on the stock and increased the target price from $275 to $300.

The team stated that NVIDIA’s earnings “exceeded expectations,” and they expect revenue growth in the first quarter to accelerate to 77% year-over-year, up from 73%, 63%, and 56% in the previous three quarters.

Bank of America specifically highlighted NVIDIA’s “Procurement Obligations” (contracts to purchase goods within a specific timeframe). In the latest report, NVIDIA’s procurement obligations surged from $16 billion a year ago to $95 billion.

Notably, on Thursday Eastern Time, well-known “Big Short” Michael Burry emphasized this figure, considering it a potential risk for NVIDIA’s future outlook.

Burry pointed out that the surge is due to TSMC, NVIDIA’s main supplier, demanding more cash to produce complex custom chips for NVIDIA. In Burry’s view, this means NVIDIA is “forced to place non-cancellable purchase orders before demand is clear,” and if downstream demand weakens in the future, this inflated number could pose significant risks to NVIDIA’s financial health.

However, Bank of America analysts see this surge from a completely different perspective.

They believe that NVIDIA’s procurement obligations to upstream suppliers, which have more than tripled to $95 billion, ensure supply stability and make NVIDIA “likely the most reliable AI market supplier. We believe the AI market could double in size over the next few years, reaching $1.4 trillion.”

Citigroup: March GTC Conference Could Boost Stock Price

Citigroup released a research report maintaining a “Buy” rating on NVIDIA and raising its target price from $270 to $300.

They expect NVIDIA’s first-quarter revenue to surpass expectations, reaching $50 billion, mainly driven by exponential growth in demand for AI based on agents.

Citigroup specifically mentioned that the GTC conference in mid-March could have a positive impact on NVIDIA’s stock price, expecting NVIDIA to showcase Groq SRAM low-latency inference, CPU, and optical networking technologies. Additionally, if NVIDIA discloses sales prospects for FY2027 early, it could serve as a catalyst for the stock price increase.

The bank raised its revenue forecasts for FY2027 and FY2028 by 4%, reflecting better-than-expected demand from Blackwell and Rubin.

Citigroup also issued its first forecast for FY2029, expecting NVIDIA’s annual revenue to reach $566 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% from 2025 to 2028.

Furthermore, Citigroup raised its EPS estimates for FY2027 and FY2028 by 2%, to $8.02 and $10.20, respectively.

Other Analysts Also Raise Target Prices

In addition to Citigroup and Bank of America, Truist Financial analysts also raised NVIDIA’s target price from $275 to $283 on Thursday and maintained a “Buy” rating.

Rosenblatt Securities also increased its target price for NVIDIA to $300 from previously undisclosed levels and maintained a “Buy” rating. The firm stated that NVIDIA’s Q4 revenue and profit exceeded market expectations. Their revenue forecast for Q1 FY2027 is about 7% higher than market estimates.

Rosenblatt analysts noted that management continued to address investor concerns about GPU capacity, TPU competition, available power, memory supply, and customer financing this quarter. Procurement commitments increased by 90% quarter-over-quarter to $95.2 billion, indicating management’s confidence in meeting customer demand for next-generation platforms. They expect NVIDIA to continue leading the AI market development through FY2027.