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The weekly chart still indicates a bearish overall trend, with a continued downward structure. On the daily chart, the rebound after the decline has failed, and prices have fallen back. The recent high of 70,000 has not been reclaimed, so the daily remains below the previous high. A few days ago, the daily closed near 70,000, then dropped to 67,400, and continued to decline to 65,800, with the closing price gradually shifting downward. Yesterday's high was only around 68,200, with a spike down to 64,800 overnight. This morning's close was still near 65,800, indicating persistent selling pressure above. The key level separating bulls and bears on the daily is 67,500. As long as the daily close does not rise back above 67,500, the market should still be viewed as weak; only if the daily closes above 67,500 again will the trend shift from bearish to sideways.
Today's intraday rhythm is mainly dominated by yesterday's high-to-low move, with prices oscillating from 68,200 down to 64,800, then rebounding but still capped below 66,000. The current price of 65,900 remains below 66,000, so the 1-hour chart looks more like a weak rebound after a decline rather than a new uptrend. From a pure candlestick perspective, the outlook is bearish, with the key level at 66,000.
Indicators show that BTC's BBI and BOLL are still below the main resistance line. Rebounds are present but weak, with no significant recovery of the downside. Focus on the 1-hour BBI and BOLL, both of which are roughly around 66,000 and facing resistance. On the daily chart, the moving averages are still below the key averages, indicating that the daily resistance remains intact. The MACD has shown some upward movement on the 1-hour and daily charts, but the 4-hour and 12-hour signals have not yet turned positive, so the rebound is still just a correction. The most "ambiguous" indicator today is the intraday MACD: it appears to be a death cross, but the bearish momentum is shrinking, and switching between bullish and bearish signals can happen quickly. The 1-hour KDJ is rising, but the 4-hour remains suppressed, so a quick spike higher could be met with rejection. RSI from the 1-hour to the weekly chart has not returned to overbought levels, indicating a generally weak momentum.
The biggest mistake today would be to interpret this 1-hour rebound as a sign of a strong reversal.
Overall, the market direction today is bearish. The background above the daily chart remains a rebound within a downtrend, with a potential for further decline. The key level to watch is 66,000; as long as prices do not reclaim this level, the market should be viewed as weak. Resistance levels are at 67,500 and 68,200; support levels are at 65,300 and 64,900. If support at 65,300 breaks again, the market could continue to seek lower support levels. Only a daily close back above 66,000 would ease the current weak trend; only if prices reclaim 67,500 can the intraday space potentially reopen.
Key levels:
Core support: 66,000
Resistance: 67,500, 68,200
Support: 65,300, 64,900