Seeing the news that Bitdeer, the Little Deer of Bitcoin, is liquidating its Bitcoin holdings, I have mixed feelings. Most people haven't yet recognized a harsh reality: in the crypto world, if you don't have timing skills, most companies that mess around will ultimately fail to outperform simply holding Bitcoin.

Many think that buying mining company stocks is equivalent to leveraged trading in crypto, but that's not the case. Let's analyze: during a bear market, crypto prices fall below the break-even point, but the expenses for mining companies—electricity bills, staff wages, equipment depreciation—cost in fiat currency cannot be reduced. To survive, they are forced to sell coins at low prices to bleed out. But by the time they have the capacity to recover, the bull market has already reached a certain stage, with increased competition and hash power.

This kind of heavy-asset, real-cost business, unless the owner has a god-level ability like Kevin to escape the top and buy the dip, will eventually be worn out by the cycle.

Only two types of players can truly outperform Bitcoin in the long run:
First, the simple hodl companies that are purely accumulating coins, earning fiat arbitrage. They leverage low-cost debt or equity issuance through US stock shell companies, then blindly buy BTC. Essentially, they profit from the difference between traditional fiat devaluation and Bitcoin's appreciation.
Second, the stablecoin giants with their own printing presses, using real cash exchanged for US dollars to buy US Treasuries, earning risk-free interest of tens or hundreds of millions of dollars, then reinvesting these profits into Bitcoin and gold—completely a dimensionality reduction attack.

As for other companies in the industry, as long as you're still paying wages, rent, and engaging in intra-industry competition in the physical world, you will inevitably incur losses. The lifespan and profits of commercial companies are limited, but the scarcity of Bitcoin is absolute. These companies are not as flexible or low-cost as ordinary retail investors.

After struggling to sell an entire cycle of shovels, they look back and realize they would have been better off just quietly hodling coins and pretending to be dead.

Messing around is not better than hodling—this is not just talk.