Over the past couple of days, since Bitcoin dropped below 68, it has attempted to rebound three times but has not broken through the 1-hour EMA20 line. Currently, at 637, it’s just stuck on the one-hour chart again. If this time it shows some strength and gives a 4-hour level rebound, I’ll consider looking around 655.

The reason why Bitcoin’s recent month-long trend has been so frustrating is that after breaking below 90,000, it has never experienced a daily-level rebound. Continuous downward pressure has worn down the bulls’ patience.
Currently, the daily EMA200 is still around 917, which is very close to the 92 bull-bear dividing line mentioned by many a few months ago.
There are really only two things that can change the downward trend in the crypto market:
1. The 《CLARITY Act》 (Market Structure Act). No matter how much the bill gets tangled up in negotiations or whether it meets expectations, once it is implemented and provides a clear framework boundary, it will be good for the industry’s stable development.
2. After Wosh took office, the Federal Reserve shifted from its current hawkish stance—shrinking the balance sheet—to a dovish stance—expanding the balance sheet. Only when liquidity returns can we see a truly powerful move capable of turning the tide.
Both of these positive developments are likely to materialize around the second half of the year. Even if smart money rushes ahead, the earliest rebound starting point might be in Q2.
Interestingly, these developments also coincide with Trump’s visit to China. Besides patiently waiting and observing the situation, there really isn’t much else to do.