CITIC Futures: Gold faces short-term pressure, trading focus shifts back to interest rate trajectory

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-23T05:31:20+00:00

First, the new employment and wage data both exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate declined, reinforcing the narrative of a resilient labor market. The market's pricing of a loosening cycle within the year faces adjustments. Second, the dollar and yields rebounded in tandem, with real interest rate expectations rising, exerting direct pressure on interest-free assets. Third, bond market yields were at low levels before the data release, and there was a weak data expectation gap. Strong data triggered reverse hedging and profit-taking by longs, intensifying price volatility. Before clear signs of weakening employment and wages appear, rate cut trades are unlikely to develop unilaterally, and gold prices may enter a phase of high-level oscillation and emotional fluctuations. In the medium term, the trend still depends on the direction of real interest rates and the dollar trend. (CITIC Futures)

K-LinePoet

2026-02-23 05:31:20

First, both new employment and wage data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate declined, reinforcing the narrative of a resilient labor market. The market’s pricing of a loosening pace for the year faces adjustments. Second, the dollar and yields rebounded in tandem, with real interest rate expectations rising, directly suppressing non-yielding assets. Third, before the data release, bond market yields were at low levels, and there was a market expectation gap for weak data. Strong data triggered reverse hedging and long profit-taking, intensifying price volatility. Until clear signs of weakening employment and wages emerge, rate cut trades are unlikely to develop unilaterally, and gold prices may enter a phase of high-level oscillation and emotional fluctuations. The medium term still depends on the direction of real interest rates and changes in the dollar trend. (CITIC Futures)

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