Just sharing some thoughts on the upcoming bear market.

There are some positive signals as well, such as the Federal Reserve printing $16 billion, the US and Iran reaching an agreement, and the end of cryptocurrency law enforcement and regulation, among others...
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But Bitcoin isn't buying it and continues to fall.
Based on SOPR, MVRV, and buy/sell data from long-term and short-term holders, it also indicates that the decline is likely to continue.
It's clear that the bear market has only completed half of its cycle.

Let's do a simple calculation.
After the last wave B rebound, Bitcoin dipped to 26,000, which is a 61.7% decline from the peak of 69,000.
This round, after wave B rebound, dipped to 60,000, which from the top of 126,000 is a 52.6% decline.
In other words, the previous decline was 1.17 times the current one.
Similarly, the overall decline in the last bear market was 77.4%. Using the same ratio, this round would decline about 66.15%.
So, the bottom would be around 42,600.
But this kind of calculation isn't very meaningful.
For example, many say that the last decline was 70-80%, so this one might also fall that much, putting the bottom around 35,000. I find that argument not very convincing.
Because the only constant is that the market is always changing.

However, 42,600 aligns with another calculation method based on this data.
The realized price is currently at 54,800.
In past bear markets, bottoms have been about 20-22% below the realized price.
So, 20% below 54,800 is roughly 44,000.

Therefore, 4,000 to 4,5000 is my target bottom price.

Bitcoin has been consolidating sideways for two weeks now. Let's see if the sideways movement ends in early March and it continues to decline toward around 50,000.
Then, before the next FOMC meeting around March 18, there might be a rebound, possibly a quick surge back above 60,000.