Unlike last year's "strongest Spring Festival box office in history," which saw high ticket sales on the first day, this year all data dimensions have declined.

According to Maoyan Professional Edition, the first-day box office for the 2026 Spring Festival is 1.233 billion yuan, down 575 million yuan year-on-year; total admissions are 24.786 million, down 9.677 million. The only data that increased is the total number of screenings, reaching 570,000, up 90,000, setting a new record for the first day of the Chinese New Year in film history.

2026 Spring Festival First Day Box Office (Source: Maoyan Professional Edition)

From a historical perspective, this year's first-day box office is also less than ideal. Both the first-day box office and total admissions have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly a decade, only higher than 2017's 806 million yuan and 21.307 million admissions.

Historical Spring Festival First Day Box Office (Source: Maoyan Professional Edition)

The obvious mismatch between screenings and audience numbers indicates poor seat occupancy, once again signaling audience departure. Of the six new films on New Year's Day, only "Chasing the Wind 3" and "Boonie Bears: Year of the Bears" had seat occupancy rates over 40%, with no new film exceeding 50%. Last year, all new Spring Festival films had seat occupancy rates of 40%, and except for "Operation Jiao Long," most maintained over 50%.

Especially under the premise that the average ticket price is at its lowest in nearly five years, audience numbers have not been effectively boosted, further highlighting the weakness of new films. This year's average ticket price is 49.7 yuan, with a large number of 19.9 yuan low-price tickets flooding social media at the start of pre-sales. Last year's ticket price was 51.4 yuan, which drove the highest-ever total audience, and the 56 yuan peak ticket price in 2021 also attracted 25.938 million viewers. It shows that ticket price is not the most core factor driving Spring Festival viewing; subtle changes in average ticket price are hardly noticeable in individual ticket purchases.

For audiences, what is more worth paying attention to is the objective word-of-mouth evaluation after viewing. On New Year's Day trending searches, discussions about movies mostly revolve around reviews, such as "Chasing the Wind 3's polarized reviews" and "Star River Dreams dark horse." On Douban, three films received first-day ratings: "Chasing the Wind 3" with 7.6, "Dartman: The Wind Rises in the Desert" with 7.5, and "Star River Dreams" with 7.0, all above 7 points, maintaining the average level for the 2026 Spring Festival.

2026 Spring Festival Films with Ratings (Source: Douban)

Looking at the tiers, the first-day box office champion "Chasing the Wind 3" had already established an advantage during pre-sales. On New Year's Day, it accounted for 50.1% of the daily box office with 616 million yuan. Besides box office, "Chasing the Wind 3" also ranked first in screening share, seat occupancy, average viewers per show, number of screenings, prime time screenings, etc. Currently, Maoyan predicts its total box office will reach 5.043 billion yuan.

In second place, "Zhan Zhe Wu Sheng" (Silent Zhan) has a slightly lower screening share at 26.2% and prime time share at 28.2%, compared to "Chasing the Wind 3" with 30.2% and 34.5%. However, poor average viewers per show and seat occupancy rates have gradually widened the box office gap between the two films, with daily box office differences exceeding three times.

"Boonie Bears: Year of the Bears" continues to perform against the trend with the stability of a well-established IP. Although it was at the bottom during pre-sales, it overtook others starting from the fourth day, and on the last day of pre-sales, it directly surpassed "Dartman: The Wind Rises in the Desert," ranking third with 67.67 million yuan. Since then, it has maintained the third position in box office, closely trailing second place "Zhan Zhe Wu Sheng" by 63 million yuan.

Pre-sale last day box office (Source: Maoyan Professional Edition)

The "Boonie Bears" series, which has dominated the Spring Festival for 12 years, often acts as a dividing line for the Matthew effect. Based on this, the films behind it—"Dartman: The Wind Rises in the Desert," "Panda Plan: Tribal Adventure," and "Star River Dreams"—were already at risk of falling behind early in the festival.

"Dartman: The Wind Rises in the Desert" has a screening share of 16.8% but only accounts for 10.3% of box office, contrasting with "Boonie Bears: Year of the Bears," which, with 11.1% screening share, took 13.2% of the box office. In terms of average viewers per show, "Dartman" has 27.2, less than half of "Boonie Bears," which exceeds 50.

As the only pure comedy film in the Spring Festival, "Panda Plan: Tribal Adventure" has not yet shown its comedic advantage. Its first-day box office did not reach 100 million yuan, but with a screening share of 8.1%, it still achieved a 29% seat occupancy rate, ranking middle among new films. This indicates that family-friendly films remain a fundamental part of the Spring Festival market.

Meanwhile, "Star River Dreams," which was in fourth place during pre-sales, fell to the bottom on the first day of release, earning only 330 million yuan, with a box office share of just 2.7%. Other metrics are also low. Interface Entertainment previously analyzed that "Star River Dreams," with its fantasy genre, does not fit well with the Spring Festival period, resulting in poor pre-sale performance. It can only rely on high word-of-mouth to secure more screenings and has little chance of a major turnaround. Previously, "We Shake the Sun Together," which started with a 2.3% box office share, also failed to create a miracle despite a Douban score of 7.9. Currently, the chance of "Star River Dreams" turning around is slim, with a box office of 200 million yuan as a new goal.

Overall, the first-day box office continues the trend from pre-sales, with clear tiers. No dark horse with a surprising comeback has emerged; "Chasing the Wind 3" leads with an absolute advantage. As the festival progresses, the Matthew effect will only intensify, which has been a common trend in recent Spring Festivals—"dark horses" are increasingly unlikely to appear, and the outcome is often decided on the first day.

As the only major IP sequel this year, "Chasing the Wind 3" has predictable box office stability. The final result, as most industry insiders expected, only leaves room for whether it can continue to rise. Considering last year's strong Spring Festival performance, it’s clear that "big IP" remains the most certain answer in the film market during this period. New themes and original stories with relatively limited recognition, even with numerous stars, still find it hard to dominate. Unfortunately, the number of large IP sequels that film companies can develop is quite limited. How to continue creating potential big IPs for the market to absorb may become the core challenge for leading film companies in the future.

(Source: Jiemian News)

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