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CPI aftershocks continue! U.S. Treasury yields approach the 4% mark, and the market is holding its breath, awaiting employment data to confirm the rate cut path.
The Tong Finance APP has learned that the upward trend in U.S. Treasury bonds last week continued after trading reopened on Tuesday following the holiday. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.03%, while the 2-year Treasury yield approached its lowest level since 2022 amid light trading in Asia. Last week, U.S. Treasuries closed strongly as market expectations of slowing inflation prompted at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
“Last week, weak U.S. CPI data and ongoing systemic deleveraging of quantitative funds in the stock market are driving bond buying,” said Prashant Neneha, senior strategist at TD Securities Singapore. “From a technical perspective, the 4% level for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is becoming a critical point. If this level is broken, yields are expected to fall sharply.”
Regional bonds generally rose, with Australian and New Zealand government bond yields also slightly declining. After signs of stabilization in demand at the 5-year bond auction, Japanese government bond yields fell sharply. U.S. stock index futures declined.
This week, traders are closely watching more data on the U.S. labor market and the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes for new clues about the potential timing of interest rate adjustments.