Analyst: The bear market is expected to end around mid-2027 and will last at least until the end of 2026.

On February 17, cryptocurrency market analyst Axel posted on social media stating that this bear market cycle began around October 2025 with an all-time high of approximately $125,000—this is confirmed by the Entity-Adjusted Liveliness indicator, which peaked at 0.02676 in December 2025. This indicator typically lags behind price movements and is now reversing downward. Historically, such reversals have often marked the start of an accumulation phase lasting from 1.1 to 2.5 years. The chart clearly shows the previous two accumulation cycles: the 2020 bear market lasted 1.1 years, and the 2022–2024 bear market lasted 2.5 years. Both cycles started in the same way, with the green line reversing from the peak and entering a sustained decline, with prices following downward. The current pattern is structurally identical. If historical patterns repeat, this accumulation phase will last at least until the end of 2026, with a more realistic expectation of extending into mid-2027. The key confirmation signal is a downward reversal of the 90-day moving average and a break below the 365-day moving average (0.02622) from above. Before this crossover occurs, there remains a possibility of a mid-cycle reset and a restart of the upward trend.