Anglo American Slashes Copper Production Outlook Following Weaker Q4 Results

British mining giant Anglo American PLC delivered mixed production results in the fourth quarter, with copper output declining sharply while precious metals faced mounting pressures. The company’s updated guidance for 2026-2027 reflects tightening market conditions and operational challenges across its portfolio.

Q4 Performance: Copper Retreats, Nickel Steady at Ten Thousand Three Hundred Tonnes

Copper production fell to 169,500 tonnes in Q4, representing a 14% decline from 198,000 tonnes in the prior year quarter. The weakness stemmed from production setbacks at Quellaveco and Collahuasi, where lower ore grades significantly impacted output. These losses outweighed gains at Los Bronces, which benefited from elevated grades and robust processing performance.

Nickel production maintained steady levels at 10,300 tonnes, rising 3% year-over-year. In contrast, steelmaking coal production dropped 15% to 2.1 million tonnes, reflecting the company’s continued optimization efforts.

Mixed Commodity Performance Across the Portfolio

Iron ore emerged as a bright spot, with premium iron ore production climbing 6% to 15.1 million tonnes, driven largely by increased output from Kumba operations. Manganese ore production rebounded sharply, surging 22% to 908,500 tonnes, as facilities returned to normalized operations following the temporary halt caused by a tropical cyclone in Australia during March 2024.

Diamond production, however, faced significant headwinds. Rough diamond output fell 35% to 3.8 million carats, primarily due to scheduled maintenance shutdowns at Jwaneng and Orapa—tactical responses to softer market demand.

Production Guidance Revised Downward Through 2028

Anglo American has materially cut its copper production forecasts for the coming years. Copper output is now projected at 700-760 thousand tonnes in fiscal 2026, down from the previous guidance of 760-820 thousand tonnes. The 2027 forecast has similarly been lowered to 750-810 thousand tonnes from the earlier range of 760-820 thousand tonnes.

Looking further ahead, the company expects copper production of 790-850 thousand tonnes in fiscal 2028, suggesting a gradual recovery trajectory. These revised targets reflect ongoing geological challenges and market-driven production optimization as the company navigates current commodity cycles.