Is It Too Late To Consider Novartis (SWX:NOVN) After Strong Multi‑Year Share Gains?

Simply Wall St

Sun, February 15, 2026 at 12:16 PM GMT+9 4 min read

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NVS

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If you are wondering whether Novartis shares are still attractively priced or already baking in a lot of optimism, this breakdown is designed to give you a clear, valuation focused view.

Novartis shares last closed at CHF 125.14, with returns of 4.3% over 7 days, 8.3% over 30 days, 15.3% year to date, 35.9% over 1 year, 84.2% over 3 years and 102.0% over 5 years. These figures help frame the question of how much value is already reflected in the price.

Recent news around Novartis has concentrated on its position as a major global pharmaceuticals group and the market’s interest in its pipeline and portfolio decisions. That context helps explain why the stock has seen ongoing attention from investors looking at both long term prospects and current pricing.

On our checks, Novartis scores a 5 out of 6 valuation score. We will unpack this using several common valuation approaches and then finish by looking at a more complete way to think about what the market is really pricing in.

Novartis delivered 35.9% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Pharmaceuticals industry.

Approach 1: Novartis Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today, using a required rate of return. It is essentially asking what all those future dollars are worth in present terms.

For Novartis, the model used is a 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections rather than earnings multiples. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about US$16.12b, and analysts have supplied forecasts out to 2030, with Simply Wall St extrapolating beyond the initial analyst window. By 2030, projected free cash flow is US$21.24b, with a series of annual projections between 2026 and 2035 feeding into the valuation.

On this basis, the DCF model suggests an estimated intrinsic value of US$251.33 per share. Compared with the recent share price of CHF 125.14, this implies an intrinsic discount of 50.2%, which points to the shares screening as undervalued under this specific method.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Novartis is undervalued by 50.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 229 more high quality undervalued stocks.

NOVN Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Novartis.

Story Continues  

Approach 2: Novartis Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Novartis, the P/E ratio is a useful yardstick because it connects what you pay for each share to the earnings the business is currently generating. Investors generally accept paying a higher P/E for companies where they see stronger growth potential or lower perceived risk, and a lower P/E where growth is more muted or risks feel higher.

Novartis currently trades on a P/E of 22.24x. That is very close to the Pharmaceuticals industry average P/E of 22.24x and sits well below the peer average of 86.80x, which is influenced by companies that trade on considerably higher earnings multiples.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Novartis is 38.54x. This is the P/E level it estimates could be reasonable for the company once factors such as earnings growth, profitability, industry, market cap and risk profile are considered together. Because this Fair Ratio blends these inputs into a single number, it can offer a more tailored reference point than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry average.

Compared with the Fair Ratio, Novartis’s current P/E suggests the shares screen as undervalued on this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUED

SWX:NOVN P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Novartis Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your own story about a company, linked to a set of numbers like future revenue, earnings, margins and a Fair Value estimate. You can compare this with the current price on Simply Wall St’s Community page, where millions of investors publish their views. These then update automatically when new information such as earnings or news arrives. For Novartis, for example, one investor might build a more optimistic Narrative around a Fair Value close to CHF 120.06 based on expectations for stronger earnings and margins. Another might prefer a more cautious Narrative nearer CHF 79.67 that leans on flatter revenue and a lower P/E. Seeing those side by side helps you decide what you believe and whether today’s price looks high, low or roughly in line with your own view.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Novartis? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

SWX:NOVN 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include NOVN.SW.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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