Bitcoin's slope coefficient K: How to identify the true bottom?

If we set aside dry economic terminology, the question “Has Bitcoin nearly bottomed out?” is essentially a question about trend perspective, market psychology, and how to manage your funds when the market enters its harshest phase. To understand better, we can use the concept of “slope coefficient k” from technical analysis: it is the slope of the price trend, the angle of oscillation of each wave. When the slope coefficient k gradually decreases (a flat trend), the market is forming a bottom; when it spikes upward (an uptrend), the accumulation process is complete.

Psychological Bottom – When Fear Dominates Over Confidence

In financial markets, a bottom is not a specific price level but a time when most investors lose patience. Signs happening around you include: the atmosphere in groups has become quiet, promises of “to the moon” have almost disappeared, replaced by murmurs, fatigue, and even fears of deleting apps.

Market history shows that when sentiment is most negative, smart money quietly builds positions. Regarding the Market Fear & Greed Index, current indicators show extreme fear—and this is often the zone where large funds start accumulating rather than selling off. The slope coefficient k of the trend expanding from these lows is the key to recognizing a true bottom forming.

The Battle Between Big Funds and Retail Investors

You need to see clearly: large funds and institutions do not buy at a single price; they build positions across a range of prices. While retail investors are busy guessing the exact bottom, big money has quietly set traps beforehand.

The 70,000 – 74,000 USD zone is heavily concentrated with pending orders from funds and institutions. They patiently stack orders below this level, taking advantage of every panic and sell-off by retail investors to absorb cheap supply. The “Final Flush” scenario— the last sweep—usually occurs just before the market recovers: a sharp drop through support levels, triggering stop-loss orders, creating the final wave of selling. If Bitcoin quickly falls into the 60s USD and then rebounds strongly, it could be a signal that the slope coefficient k of the trend is about to shift from negative to positive—that is, the bottoming process has been completed.

Practical Strategy: Capital Preservation Is More Important Than Catching the Exact Bottom

Instead of trying to predict the exact lowest point (which even experts often get wrong), you should adopt a long-term approach with risk management in mind.

Principles of capital allocation:

Don’t put all your money into one shot. Divide your resources into multiple tranches, entering at different levels. An effective method is splitting your capital into 3–4 parts, starting from levels like 75,000 USD, 72,000 USD, and keeping a “last bullet” for worse scenarios around 65,000 USD. This approach not only helps you avoid getting “burned” if prices fall deeper but also allows you to take advantage of different price levels.

Maintain psychological resilience:

The bottom does not form in a single day but is a process of accumulation that can last several weeks or even months. The key is not to let short-term red candles shake your long-term plan. The slope coefficient k of the trend can go up and down multiple times before truly stabilizing in an upward direction.

The market is entering its most brutal cleansing phase. Those who remain— with disciplined risk management and smart capital control— are the ones most likely to reap significant rewards when the growth cycle resumes. The difference is not about catching the exact bottom but about surviving to wait for the next cycle.