CPI-driven AI panic intensifies, NASDAQ drops over 2%, U.S. bonds strengthen, RMB hits a three-year high, gold falls below $5,000, silver plunges 11%

On Friday, ahead of the US CPI data, deep concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting numerous industries’ business models, combined with the largest decline in US existing home sales in four years, triggered market risk aversion. Investors sold off risk assets such as stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, flooding into US Treasuries regarded as safe havens. Metal markets were also sold off due to liquidity needs.

On Thursday, US stocks accelerated their decline amid several days of AI profit anxiety. The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, breaking below the 50-day moving average. The Nasdaq dropped 2%.

The Nasdaq 100 index also plummeted 2%, marking its worst three-day performance since April last year, and it has fallen more than 1% for the fifth time in the past 10 trading days.

According to Wallstreetcn, US January existing home sales annualized total was 3.91 million units, down 8.4% month-on-month. The decline in January home sales was the largest in four years, reigniting fears of recession. Rate cut expectations rebounded, almost erasing the hawkish sentiment from yesterday’s non-farm payroll data.

Analysts believe the US stock market is in a highly dangerous “negative gamma” state. After the S&P 500 broke below the key support of 6950 points, market makers were forced to chase the decline, intensifying downward pressure, and the index fell below the 50-day moving average again.

Meanwhile, the “survival anxiety” brought by AI is spreading from software stocks to broader industries. Following SaaS, insurance, wealth management, and commercial real estate service providers, logistics has become the latest victim. Logistics giant CH Robinson plunged 14.5%.

Investors are panic-selling industries that could be replaced by AI, whether it’s using chatbots for freight matching or algorithms replacing real estate agents. Any business model that could be “AI-ized” faces valuation reevaluation.

This “search for losers” trading logic has caused market funds to withdraw across technology, real estate, and finance sectors without question. The number of declining stocks in the S&P 500 far exceeds the number of rising stocks.

All seven tech giants declined, and the weak software sector ETF continued to fall nearly 3%. Cisco tumbled 12% after issuing weak profit margin guidance, further undermining confidence in the hardware sector.

Goldman Sachs traders pointed out that what is most worrying is not the sell-off itself, but investors’ “complete lack of willingness to buy the dip,” making any sector’s decline highly susceptible to turning into a crash.

Funds flooded into US Treasuries seeking safety, and record demand for the 30-year Treasury auction also pushed bond prices higher. The 30-year yield fell over 7 basis points, and the 10-year yield dropped to its lowest since December 5, near the key level of 4.100%.

The US dollar index remained flat. The yen rose for the fourth consecutive day. Onshore and offshore RMB against the dollar both broke through 6.90, hitting new highs since April 2023 during the session. Analysts believe the concentrated release of RMB settlement flows is the core driver of this round of strength.

Looking ahead, many experts warn that the RMB exchange rate remains highly uncertain, and enterprises and financial institutions should avoid blindly following the trend or speculating on currency movements.

The cryptocurrency market continued to decline. Bitcoin fell for four consecutive days, losing the $66,000 level on Thursday, continuing its recent high correlation with high-risk tech stocks, once again proving its lack of safe-haven properties during market panic.

Wallstreetcn mentioned that the broad decline in US stocks triggered algorithmic selling in metals, with some investors forced to exit commodity positions including metals to raise liquidity. Gold dropped over 3%, breaking below $5,000, and silver plunged 11%. Copper also fell 3.6%.

Crude oil prices declined about 2.8%, with Brent crude briefly falling below $67 per barrel, after Trump reiterated his pursuit of diplomatic solutions to Iran, and IEA again lowered demand outlooks.

On Thursday, the three major US stock indices declined. The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, and the Nasdaq dropped over 2%. Software sector ETFs declined 2.7%. Cisco plunged 12% after issuing weak profit margin guidance. Apple fell 5%, leading the seven tech giants lower.

Major US stock indices:

• S&P 500 closed down 108.71 points, down 1.57%, at 6832.76.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 669.42 points, down 1.34%, at 49451.98.

• Nasdaq closed down 469.319 points, down 2.04%, at 22597.148. The Nasdaq 100 index fell 513.649 points, down 2.04%, at 24687.612.

• Russell 2000 closed down 2.01%, at 2615.83.

• The VIX fear index rose 17.96%, to 20.82.

US sector ETFs:

• The Nasdaq sector ETF declined over 3.5%, leading US sector ETFs lower, with the S&P Technology sector down over 2.6%.

(US sector ETFs as of February 12)

The seven tech giants:

• The Magnificent 7 US tech stocks index fell 2.24%, to 195.22 points, continuing its decline throughout the day.

• Microsoft down 0.63%, Google A down 0.63%, Nvidia down 1.64%, Amazon down 2.2%, Tesla down 2.62%, Meta down 2.82%, Apple down 5%.

Semiconductor stocks:

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.50%, to 8084.70.

• TSMC ADR down 1.63%, AMD down 3.58%.

Chinese concept stocks:

• Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3.00%, at 7599.35.

• Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Tencent Music down 10%, Ctrip down 6%, KE Holdings down 5.8%, Bilibili, Baidu, Atlas, Yum China down over 4%, Alibaba down 3.4%.

Other stocks:

• Circle down 2.06%.

Thursday, European stocks closed down about 0.5%, with Camurus down 24%, Adyen down about 22%. Italian banking sector declined 0.9%, Dutch stocks fell about 2.1%.

Pan-European indices:

• STOXX Europe 600 index closed down 0.49%, at 618.52.

• Euro STOXX 50 index closed down 0.40%, at 6011.29.

Country indices:

• Germany DAX 30 closed down 0.01%, at 24,852.69.

• France CAC 40 closed up 0.33%, at 8,340.56.

• UK FTSE 100 closed down 0.67%, at 10,402.44.

(Major European indices as of February 12)

Sectors and individual stocks:

• Among Eurozone blue chips, Adyen fell 21.87%—disappointing earnings guidance caused concern among investors. DHL down 4.88%, Sanofi down 4.19%, third largest decline.

• All components of the STOXX 600 declined, with Camurus down 24.03%, Adyen second largest decline, Thyssenkrupp down 12.22% among the bottom six.

The 30-year US Treasury yield fell 8 basis points. The 2- to 30-year UK bond yields declined at least 2 basis points.

US Treasuries:

• NY close: 10-year US Treasury yield down 7.05 basis points, at 4.1019%.

• 2-year US Treasury yield down 4.57 basis points, at 3.4642%.

(Major US Treasury yields)

European bonds:

• At the close of European markets, 10-year German Bund yield down 1.4 basis points, at 2.779%, trading range during the day was 2.805%-2.775%.

• UK 10-year Gilt yield down 2.4 basis points, at 4.452%, continuing to decline throughout the day.

• France, Italy, Spain, Greece, and other countries’ 10-year yields declined at least 1 basis point.

The US dollar index remained flat. The yen rose for the fourth consecutive day. Bitcoin dropped 3%, falling below $66,000.

US dollar:

• NY close: ICE dollar index up 0.10%, at 96.925, trading range 96.744-97.074.

• Bloomberg dollar index up 0.01%, at 1181.99, trading range 1179.58-1183.49.

(Bloomberg dollar index)

Japanese yen:

• NY close: USD/JPY down 0.24%, at 152.89 yen, trading range 153.76-152.27.

• EUR/JPY down 0.27%, GBP/JPY down 0.30%.

Offshore RMB:

• NY close: USD/CNH at 6.8981, down 114 points from Wednesday’s NY close, trading range 6.9096-6.8912.

Cryptocurrencies:

• NY close: Spot Bitcoin down 3%, below $66,000.

(Bitcoin price oscillations)

Crude oil:

• WTI March futures down 1.79 USD, down 2.77%, at 62.84 USD/barrel.

(WTI futures)

• Brent April futures down 1.88 USD, down 2.71%, at 67.52 USD/barrel.

Natural gas:

• NYMEX March natural gas futures at 3.2170 USD/MMBtu.

Gold remains mostly above 5050 USD, then sharply plunges to a daily low of 4878.66 USD. Silver drops about 11%, platinum group metals and New York copper also plunge around 00:00.

Gold:

• NY close: Spot gold down 3.26%, at 4918.36 USD/oz.

• COMEX gold futures down 3.06%, at 4942.50 USD/oz.

Silver:

• NY close: Spot silver down 10.89%, at 75.0942 USD/oz.

• COMEX silver futures down 10.56%, at 75.050 USD/oz.

(Gold-silver ratio rises to 66)

Other metals:

• NY close: COMEX copper futures down 3.65%, at 5.7740 USD/lb.

• Spot platinum down 6.19%, spot palladium down 5.89%.

• LME copper down 291 USD, at 12,876 USD/ton. LME nickel down 452 USD, at 17,428 USD/ton.

Risk warning and disclaimer

Market risks are present; investments should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual users’ specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their particular circumstances. Invest at your own risk.