The 4-Year Cycle of Bitcoin Is Not FUD – It's the Biggest Opportunity

Whenever Bitcoin’s price drops sharply, the natural reaction of most investors and traders is fear. The market turns red-hot, bad news floods in, and confidence wavers. And currently, that feeling reemerges as Bitcoin seems to be repeating its familiar four-year cycle.
But if you look far enough and stay calm, you’ll realize:
👉 The four-year cycle is not a sign of ending — it’s an opportunity that only comes once every four years.
This article will analyze:
Why Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains valid
Historical bull and bear market structures
The strategy of buying Bitcoin near the bottom rather than trying to “perfectly catch the bottom”
Expectations for the current cycle: price and timing

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle: Nothing “Different This Time”
In each new cycle, the market always repeats a familiar phrase:
“This time is different.”
But Bitcoin’s history shows the opposite.

Looking back at Bitcoin’s major peaks:
November 2013 – cycle peak
December 2017 – next cycle peak (after ~4 years)
November 2021 – repeating the pattern
Around October 2025 – the most recent cycle peak
👉 Every four years, Bitcoin hits a major high. Not once has it missed.
Despite changes in:
Institutional money flows
ETFs
Blockchain technology
Narrative stories
The cycle structure still repeats astonishingly.

Bitcoin’s Bear Market: Also Following the Law
Not only the peaks, but the bottoms of Bitcoin also form according to a four-year cycle.

History shows a very clear pattern:
About 3 years of strong growth
Followed by 1 year of bear market
Then entering a new growth cycle

Major Bitcoin bottoms:
2014
2018
2022
👉 Each roughly four years apart, and each time it’s when:
The worst bad news hits
Confidence is at its lowest
And the long-term opportunity is greatest

Buying Bitcoin Strategy: Not Catching the Bottom, Just Near It
A common mistake among investors is:
“Must buy at the absolute bottom.”
In reality, that’s nearly impossible.
A more reasonable strategy is:
Buy near the bottom zone
To capture most of the next bull cycle wave

Tools Used: Fibonacci Retracement
Looking at previous bear markets:
2014
2018
2022
You’ll see a very clear commonality:
👉 Bitcoin’s price always bottoms within the Fibonacci 0.618 – 0.786 zone measured from the previous cycle’s bottom to the next cycle’s top.
Even during times when:
Price breaks through the fib zone
Extreme panic sell-offs occur
This zone always becomes the long-term bottom area.

Current Cycle: What Is a Reasonable Price Range?
Assuming the current cycle is no different from previous ones (and history supports this), then applying Fibonacci to this cycle:
👉 The potential bottom range is between $40,000 and $60,000.
One thing to clarify:
❌ No one can confidently say the price “cannot go lower”
✔ The price can wick down lower, just like in previous cycles.
But based on probability and history:
This is most likely the cycle’s bottom zone.

Bottoms Don’t Happen in a Day
A very important point many overlook:
👉 Bitcoin’s bottom has never been just a single candle.
The reality is always:
A prolonged accumulation phase
Sideways movement, frustration
Monthly sideways trading

This means:
You have time to buy
No need to go all-in at once
You can DCA, split your capital, and be patient.

Timing: When Will the Bear Cycle End?
Based on previous cycles:
Bottoms usually form in Q4 of the fourth year after the peak.
If the recent peak is in Q4/2025, then:
👉 The bottom is likely to appear in Q4/2026.
Of course, this only holds if:
There are no major systemic shocks
Market structure maintains its traditional cycle rhythm.

Conclusion: My Plan
In summary, my view is very clear:
The four-year cycle is not dead
The bear market is not the end of the world
This is a phase to plan, not panic.
Strategy:
Monitor the $40k – $60k zone
Prioritize accumulation during the bottom formation
Hold through the next bull cycle
👉 The greatest opportunity in crypto always appears when most have lost faith. $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)