Are altcoins still an opportunity? Let's look at two data points:

1. The holdings of altcoins are still at low levels,
indicating that funds have not entered the altcoin market.
At the same time,
2. Since January 1st, trading volume has shown an increasing trend.
This strange phenomenon suggests that in each transaction, at least one party—buyer or seller—is closing an old position (liquidating), rather than opening a new one.
Meanwhile, the overall price of altcoins remains very subdued / oscillating at low levels.
There are three possible scenarios:
1. Frequent turnover
An holder of an old contract transfers their position to a new trader entering the market.
Bullish turnover: old longs sell to close, new longs take over and open positions.
Bearish turnover: old shorts buy to close, new shorts sell to open positions.
Implication: Internal market forces are "handing over the baton." Although trading activity is lively, no new funds are flowing in. This usually occurs during trend consolidation or sideways trading phases.
2. The closing wave at the end of a trend (reversal warning)
If such divergence occurs after significant price fluctuations, it is usually a sign that the trend is about to exhaust.
At the end of a decline: price drops, volume surges, but holdings decrease. This indicates that the decline is driven by long liquidation (passive selling to close positions). Once the long liquidation is complete, the price often rebounds or reverses.
In summary, the market currently lacks new funds entering trading, and liquidity is insufficient.
Any rebound is unlikely to be sustained and is more likely a pulse-like rebound caused by short sellers being forced to close positions under funding rate pressure.
To confirm a reversal, holdings must start to increase, trading volume must rise, and the price should oscillate or break through the range.
We still need to wait for signals to appear.
#持仓量 #Volume #Altcoins