Global News | The three major U.S. stock indices all fell more than 1%, with a 77.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged

【U.S. Stock Indices】

On February 5th, Eastern Time (Thursday), the three major U.S. stock indices all fell more than 1%, with the S&P 500 down 1.23% to 6798.40 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.20% to 48908.72 points; and the Nasdaq down 1.59% to 22540.59 points.

【U.S. Bonds】

On February 5th, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.21%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, was 3.47%.

【Popular U.S. Stocks】

Among popular U.S. stocks, Nvidia fell 1.37%, Apple fell 0.21%, Google C fell 0.60%, Google A fell 0.54%, Microsoft fell 4.95%, Amazon fell 4.42%, TSMC rose 1.40%, Meta rose 0.18%, Tesla fell 2.17%, Super Micro Semiconductor fell 3.84%, and Intel fell 0.74%.

【Global Indices】

【China Indices】

On February 4th, overnight Hang Seng Tech Index futures fell 1.81%, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 1.95%, and FTSE China A50 Index rose 1.13%.

【Chinese Concept Stocks】

Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Tencent Holdings (HK) rose 0.09%, Alibaba fell 0.89%, Pinduoduo fell 0.60%, NetEase fell 0.91%, Baidu rose 0.73%, Ctrip fell 0.07%, Li Auto rose 2.60%, Xpeng Motors rose 0.66%, NIO rose 6.08%.

【Forex and Commodities】

【Global News】

Probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in March is 77.3%

According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 22.7%, with a 77.3% chance of holding rates steady. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April is 36.2%, with a 58.1% chance of no change, and a 5.6% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 50.2%. (Cailian Press)

Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closes up 0.9%

Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.9%.

OpenAI and Ginkgo collaborate to reduce protein production costs by 40%

OpenAI posted on X platform that, in collaboration with Ginkgo Bioworks, they connected GPT-5 with automated laboratories, creating a closed-loop system that reduced protein production costs by 40%. (Cailian Press)

Elon Musk states SpaceX is not developing a phone

Elon Musk states that SpaceX is not developing a phone. (Cailian Press)

OpenAI CEO announces the official release of GPT-5.3-Codex

The CEO of OpenAI announced the official release of GPT-5.3-Codex. It reduces the number of tokens needed to complete similar tasks by over half compared to 5.2-Codex, with over 25% faster token processing speed. (Cailian Press)

OpenAI launches new platform to help enterprises deploy “AI colleagues”

OpenAI is launching a new platform to help companies deploy AI agents more easily. This is part of the company’s broader effort to solidify its leadership in automating high-value work tasks. Named Frontier, this product allows organizations to build and manage these AI tools, ensuring each agent has appropriate safety barriers and data access permissions. The goal is to simplify the deployment of AI agents—referred to as “AI colleagues” by OpenAI—and pave the way for large-scale adoption by enterprise clients. (Cailian Press)

Federal Reserve’s BOSTIC says high inflation persists too long

Federal Reserve’s BOSTIC states that high inflation persists for too long. (Cailian Press)

Nvidia delays new gaming chip release due to storage chip shortage

According to two informed sources, due to the ongoing global storage chip shortage caused by the AI boom, Nvidia will not release new gaming graphics chips this year. This will be Nvidia’s first time in thirty years not launching a new gaming GPU. (Sina Tech)

European Central Bank maintains three key interest rates

The European Central Bank kept its three main interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations, for the fifth consecutive meeting. The deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain at 2%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively. The ECB is committed to ensuring inflation stabilizes at 2% in the medium term.

UK 2-year government bond yield slightly declines before rate decision

Ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision, the UK 2-year government bond yield slightly declined. Markets expect the Bank of England to keep rates at 3.75%. Investors will watch for any signals of potential rate cuts in the coming months. Tradeweb data shows the 2-year UK bond yield fell 2 basis points to 3.708%.