Whale buys $161 million worth of ADA against the trend, $0.35 becomes the key to rebound

During the two months of downward pressure on Cardano (ADA) prices, an unseen force has been quietly counteracting the trend. According to on-chain data, whale addresses holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have accumulated a total of 454 million ADA, worth approximately $161 million at current prices. In stark contrast, retail investors holding 100 ADA or less have sold over 22,000 ADA in the past three weeks. This "big players buying, retail fleeing" pattern often signals a potential market turning point in crypto market history.

On-Chain Capital Signals a Positive Outlook

Contrasting Whales and Retail Investors

Based on Santiment data, a battle of capital flows is unfolding:

• Whale addresses (holding 100,000–1 billion ADA) have accumulated 454 million ADA in the past two months, valued at $161 million
• Retail addresses (holding 100 ADA or less) have been continuously selling over the past three weeks, totaling 22,000 ADA sold
• This pattern typically appears before market stabilization and a rebound

This is no coincidence. When large funds continue accumulating at lows while retail investors exit, it often indicates diverging expectations among market participants. Whales' actions are usually based on long-term value judgments, whereas retail selling reflects short-term emotional pressure.

Fundamentals Remain Supportive

Despite a 19% price decline, the fundamentals of the Cardano ecosystem have not weakened:

• The number of wallet addresses increased from 3.17 million in November last year to 3.228 million, with new users still entering
• DeFi total value locked (TVL) is about $162 million, up over 1.5% in the past 24 hours
• Since October last year, the amount of ADA locked has remained high, with no large-scale withdrawal of funds

These data suggest that the price correction has not triggered panic exits among ecosystem participants. Instead, ongoing user growth and stable DeFi locking indicate confidence in Cardano’s long-term prospects.

Valuation and Technical Support

$0.35: The Key Battleground for Bulls and Bears

Currently, ADA trades around $0.351606, up 1.03% in the past 24 hours. More notably, Santiment’s MVRV indicator shows ADA at a -7.9% negative zone, meaning most holders are at a loss.

A negative MVRV is often seen as a buying opportunity, as market profits are below the normal "zero-sum" level. The more negative, the lower the risk for investors to buy in. Among mainstream tokens, ADA’s -7.9% is relatively undervalued (compared to Ethereum at -7.6%, XRP at -5.7%, Bitcoin at -3.7%).

Potential Technical Breakout Space

According to quick analysis, ADA is oscillating within a historical demand zone. If this support holds, the next targets could be $0.63, $0.93, or even $1.32. However, selling pressure currently acts as a barrier. Only when buying momentum can break through these resistance levels will the market truly open to the upside.

Therefore, around $0.35, the battle between bulls and bears is critical—this is where whales accumulate and where retail traders’ psychological support levels lie.

Future Outlook

From multiple angles, Cardano is building conditions for a rebound: whale accumulation signals strong institutional interest, stable fundamentals provide a bottom support, and low MVRV suggests a favorable risk-reward ratio. Additionally, the recent inclusion of ADA in ARK Invest’s crypto ETF indicates institutional recognition of this asset.

However, short-term movements require close observation. Whether ADA can break through the $0.35 resistance convincingly and hold above key levels will determine the strength and sustainability of any rebound.

Summary

Cardano currently exhibits a "weak price, stable fundamentals, strong capital flow" pattern. The $161 million accumulation by whales, combined with ecosystem growth, DeFi stability, and undervaluation, signals a potential turning point. $0.35 is not only a technical support level but also a psychological threshold—breaking above it would mean bulls regain control, while failure to hold could see bears continue to pressure. For long-term investors bullish on Cardano, this price zone warrants attention, but short-term patience is needed until key resistance levels are confirmed to be broken.