The copper supply gap threatens AI data centers and the momentum of global electrification

Source: Yellow Original Title: The Copper Supply Gap Threatens AI Data Centers and Global Electrification Drive

Original Link: https://yellow.com/es/news/la-brecha-en-el-suministro-de-cobre-amenaza-los-centros-de-datos-de-ia-y-el-impulso-de-electrificacion-global According to Katusa Research, copper is becoming a decisive constraint for global AI infrastructure, electrification, and defense system deployment. The analysis warns that demand growth is outpacing supply capacity.

Citing S&P Global's January 2026 copper outlook report, Katusa Research notes that global copper demand is expected to increase from approximately 28 million metric tons currently to 42 million metric tons by 2040.

Without significant intervention, the company estimates the market faces a potential deficit of about 10 million metric tons, a gap described as structurally unmanageable under the current supply timetable.

This month, copper prices hit a daily record close to $6 per pound, with Katusa Research stating this reflects that global inventory buffers are nearly exhausted.

AI and Electrical Infrastructure Drive Demand

Katusa Research points out that AI-driven power consumption is a key accelerant.

According to data cited from S&P Global in the report, US data centers accounted for about 5% of electricity demand when ChatGPT was launched at the end of 2022. This proportion is expected to rise to 14% by 2030.

Each megawatt of AI data center capacity requires 30 to 47 metric tons of copper for wiring, cooling systems, and power distribution.

In China, AI facilities are typically built with double redundancy, requiring even higher copper intensity.

The report mentions that J.P. Morgan estimates that just AI data centers could add approximately 110,000 metric tons of incremental copper demand by 2026.

Electric Vehicles and Defense Increase Inelastic Pressure

Electrification of transportation amplifies this pressure.

The report states that copper used in battery electric vehicles is nearly three times that of internal combustion engine vehicles, with global copper demand related to EVs expected to grow from about 2.6 million metric tons today to 6.3 million metric tons annually by 2040.

Increased defense spending adds another layer of inelastic demand.

NATO member countries have committed to higher military budgets, and modern weapon systems, communication infrastructure, and drones are all copper-intensive, the company notes.

Insufficient Supply Growth Rate

On the supply side, the report emphasizes declining ore grades, operational disruptions, and permitting delays.

S&P Global data shows that it takes an average of 17 years to bring a new copper mine from discovery to first production.

The UBS forecast cited by the company indicates that the copper deficit will expand from about 230,000 metric tons in 2025 to over 400,000 metric tons in 2026, with inventories already depleted.

"The world needs 50% more copper," Katusa Research states, "supply channels simply cannot respond in time."