Bitcoin vs. gold drops 55%, historical data shows this weakness could continue throughout the year

According to the latest news, Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold is experiencing a deep bear market. The current Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is approximately 18.46, down about 55% from its peak in December 2024, and has already fallen below its 200-week moving average by about 17%. This change not only impacts Bitcoin’s price but also challenges its market positioning as “digital gold.”

“Digital Gold” Suppressed by Gold

From a relative performance perspective, gold has outperformed Bitcoin in both the past year and five-year periods, which is a rare scenario in the competition between crypto assets and traditional precious metals. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen from its December 2024 high to the current level, a decline of 55%, meaning that with the same amount of Bitcoin, you can buy less gold.

Key Data Comparison

Historical Patterns Warning

This is not the first time Bitcoin has faced difficulties with this indicator. According to historical data, during previous major bear cycles, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio exhibited similar performance:

• 2022 cycle: Ratio fell more than 30% below the 200-week MA and remained below the MA for over a year
• 2018 cycle: Maximum drawdown reached 84%
• 2022 cycle: Maximum drawdown reached 77%

The current breakdown began in November 2025. If history repeats, this ratio could remain below the 200-week MA throughout 2026. It is worth noting that although the current relative decline (55%) has not reached the deepest historical retracement levels (77%-84%), the ongoing weakness is enough to alter market perceptions of Bitcoin.

Narrative Dilemma and Future Outlook

The narrative foundation of Bitcoin as “digital gold” is based on its scarcity and store of value properties. But when its relative performance continues to underperform compared to real gold, this narrative begins to weaken. Gold has outperformed Bitcoin over both the past year and five years, indicating that during risk asset pressure cycles, traditional safe-haven assets tend to perform more stably.

Based on historical patterns, if the current weakness persists, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio may take a long time to re-establish above the 200-week MA. This implies:

• In the short term, gold may continue to be more attractive relative to Bitcoin
• Bitcoin needs stronger fundamentals or market sentiment support to reverse its relative underperformance
• Institutional investors may reassess their allocations between the two as stores of value

However, it is important to note that the deepest historical retracements have exceeded the current levels, meaning the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio could decline further. From another perspective, these extreme situations in history have eventually reversed, but it takes time.

Summary

Bitcoin’s deep bear market relative to gold is a phenomenon worth paying attention to. A 55% decline, being 17% below the 200-week MA, and the sustained weakness since November 2025 all point in one direction: this state could last quite a long time. Historical data shows similar relative weakness has persisted for over a year; if the pattern repeats, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio might remain below the MA throughout 2026. For investors, this is both a reconsideration of the “digital gold” narrative and a reminder for asset allocation.