#我的2026第一条帖 Let's talk about the future trend of Bitcoin

Since late November last year, Bitcoin's movement has been highly synchronized with the S&P 500, so the future trend of Bitcoin largely depends on the trend of the S&P.

After Trump announced not to engage in a tariff war, both the S&P and Bitcoin experienced a volume-driven rebound, with the S&P partially filling the gap created by the previous day's decline.
If the S&P can fully fill the gap in the short term, there is a high probability of continued upward movement and reaching new highs. However, even if the S&P hits a new high, it could be the last rally of the ending inclined triangle, with a trend reversal after a false breakout and trap.

If the S&P fails to fill the gap or fills it with reduced volume, the probability of a continued decline after the rebound is higher, possibly leading directly to a bear market.

Correspondingly, Bitcoin will also experience two scenarios:

Optimistic scenario: The S&P fills the gap and continues to rise to new highs. Bitcoin is expected to continue rising and break the January 14 high, forming a flag pattern correction, followed by further decline; based on yesterday's rebound volume of the S&P and Bitcoin, this scenario is not unlikely.

Pessimistic scenario: The S&P cannot fill the gap or fills it with reduced volume, continuing to decline. Bitcoin will continue to fall, testing the support level at 74,500.