PIPPIN has been fluctuating between 0.35 and 0.40 recently, which doesn't seem to indicate an imminent new trend. Instead, it looks like the main force is in the process of transferring positions.

Previously, it rose from 0.26 all the way to 0.404, with a clear rapid and significant upward surge, indicating that funds are "igniting" the market. But at the 0.38 to 0.40 range, things started to change—trading volume decreased, and more upper shadows appeared on the candlesticks. This suggests that the number of follow-buyers is decreasing, and the selling pressure at high levels is accumulating.

Looking at the changes on the capital side is even more interesting. The proportion of large traders' long positions dropped from 65% directly to 52%, while short positions increased from 23% to 36%. The total open interest is also shrinking. This combination usually isn't a shakeout; it more resembles the main force slowly offloading chips at high levels and passing the baton to retail investors.

As for the subsequent development, there are essentially two scenarios—

First, if it can break through 0.404 and stabilize, accompanied by increased volume, it indicates that new funds are willing to enter at higher prices, significantly increasing the probability of pushing upward. But based on the current volume, such a confirmed breakout isn't highly probable.

Second, if it falls below 0.35, it is likely to trigger a surge of stop-loss orders, and the price will then look for support around 0.30 to 0.32. Fortunately, there are some buy orders at the bottom providing support, so the risk of a sharp drop through in the short term isn't high.

The more realistic scenario is that the price continues to fluctuate between 0.35 and 0.40 for a while, fully exchanging chips, and only when volume or news signals provide new momentum will there be a clear direction.

The logic of trading opportunities is also very clear—long positions should wait for a breakout confirmation, short positions should wait for a breakdown confirmation. Until clear signals appear, this market is more about waiting for the direction rather than guessing it.