#预测市场 After reading this article, I have to say honestly: the current prediction market is just a beautiful bubble, only disguised as "innovation."

I've seen too many projects die this way. In the early stages, a wave of traffic surged in due to novelty and FOMO, and the data looked glamorous. Funding rounds followed one after another, founders and investors became self-absorbed. But upon closer inspection, the underlying logic is just a paper tiger—liquidity is fundamentally insufficient, most trading is concentrated in a few hot markets, while other markets have absurdly wide bid-ask spreads, and most people are just playing incentive games.

Isn't this just a replica of WeWork? A false prosperity built on subsidies. Kalshi and Polymarket burn money to subsidize trading volume and liquidity rewards, market makers aren't even making money themselves. What does this indicate? It shows that under the current model, this approach simply can't work.

The structural design of binary options is inherently flawed. Compared to perpetual contracts, they lack leverage, hedging mechanisms, and suffer from fragmented liquidity, resulting in poor user experience. Those who truly understand trading have long seen through this, yet platforms instead treat their criticism as noise. It's like RIM mocking the iPhone back in the day—confident to the point of foolishness.

The true "everything can be traded" vision has not yet been realized; what we see now is just an illusion. Breaking through this impasse requires a complete overhaul, but no one is willing to admit they took the wrong path. That is the most dangerous part.