Recently, I have been watching the 1-hour trend of BTC and noticed several details that cannot be ignored.

From a technical perspective, the price has been repeatedly oscillating below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, the MACD has already shown a death cross, and the DIF has clearly crossed below the DEA, which directly reflects the diminishing bullish momentum. The key support level is around 87205; if this level is broken, further downside exploration may be necessary.

On-chain data is also quite interesting. In the past 24 hours, large addresses transferring BTC to exchanges have increased, suggesting that some whales might be considering reducing their holdings. This selling pressure risk is something to watch out for.

In terms of news sentiment, macro sentiment is currently cautious, with funds waiting for the Federal Reserve's next move. Short-term risk aversion sentiment has clearly increased.

My view is that although the mid- to long-term bull market logic has not changed, the technical signals on the 1-hour timeframe clearly indicate that the bears have gained the upper hand. I have emphasized before not to blindly catch the bottom, and this stance remains unchanged. This wave of market movement requires a true pullback to the support level to be considered a healthy rally. Aggressive traders can try to go short with a small position, but be sure to set a stop loss; more conservative traders should mainly wait and see, and only participate once the trend becomes clearer again.

The core of trading has never been about guessing the right direction, but about taking action when the probabilities are favorable. I emphasized the importance of risk control last week, and the current trend is also validating this judgment. The market ultimately rewards those who are patient; those rushing in recklessly will eventually pay tuition fees.