ASTERUSDT Perpetual Market Analysis: Sellers Dominate as Support Holds Firm

• ASTERUSDT remains in a weak support zone with no significant bullish momentum in the near term trading sessions .

• Sellers are dominant across all trade size cohorts, especially from retail traders who have taken the larger part of the market.

• Market compression suggests a binary outcome: either a short squeeze or a breakdown.

The ASTERUSDT perpetual market is at a critical point, with price action showing weak trends, compressed volatility, and consistent sell-side pressure. While the support around 0.609–0.610 holds for now, market behavior and volume dynamics suggest potential for further downside if sellers maintain control.

Price Action and Support Test

ASTERSDT has been trending downward with lower highs and lower lows, indicating weakness in its short-term price structure. The price has repeatedly tested the 0.609–0.610 support zone.

Yet each test has resulted in weak, small-bodied candles with wicks on both sides. These formations suggest temporary balance but not aggressive buying.

Instead, it points to defensive absorption, where buyers are hesitant, and sellers still dominate. A liquidity sweep below 0.605 briefly drove prices lower but quickly reversed, indicating stop runs rather than genuine market weakness.

This type of price behavior signals that while the support is holding, it is fragile, and the potential for a breakdown exists if selling pressure intensifies. The lack of follow-through buying further highlights the market’s fragility.

$ASTER mid-big size whales are selling in this bounce.
I expect a low below 0.6 soon. pic.twitter.com/bfDCiclPTV

— Enri.hl (@0xWhale) January 20, 2026

Seller Dominance and Volume Delta

Aggregated volume delta metrics provide a clearer picture of the market’s internals. The overall delta is deeply negative (~-58M), showing that market sells are consistently outpacing market buys.

This trend is a classic example of bearish absorption, where price remains stable but is under heavy selling pressure. Particularly noteworthy is the decline in the sub-100K trade delta, which represents retail traders.

This cohort has become increasingly aggressive in selling, pushing the delta down to -41M. This behavior suggests that retail traders are reacting to the downtrend and recent liquidity sweep, adding to the overall selling pressure.

Even mid-sized traders, reflected in the 100K–1M trade delta cohort, are also net sellers (~-17M). This means that the selling pressure is not just coming from retail but also from more informed participants.

Absence of Large Players and Market Outlook

The 1M–10M trade delta pane reveals an important detail: large traders are absent from the market. There is no indication of whale buying or significant accumulation at these price levels.

Large players typically step in to defend critical support. However, their absence suggests that any potential bounce would be driven by retail short-covering rather than institutional buying.

With the lack of large buyer involvement, the support zone around 0.609–0.610 is highly vulnerable. While a short-term bounce to 0.620–0.625 is possible due to retail traders covering their positions.

The absence of major buyers and the persistent dominance of sellers indicate that any bounce would likely be temporary. Without fresh buying from larger players, downside continuation remains the more likely scenario.