2026-01-21 00:53:56

Fundstrat Research Director Tom Lee recently expressed an interesting view. He believes that starting this year, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, increased trade barriers, and growing political divisions will combine to likely cause a "painful adjustment" in the US stock and crypto markets by early 2026.

Specifically, US stocks could face a decline of 15%-20%. It sounds a bit alarming, but Lee's logic is as follows—after enduring the initial pain, as the Federal Reserve shifts to a more dovish stance, and the quantitative tightening cycle ends, the market is expected to see a significant rebound by the end of the year.

In other words, 2026 could be a year of "initial decline followed by recovery." Be mentally prepared for the short term, but from a full-year perspective, there may actually be opportunities. For crypto investors, this judgment still has some reference value.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

17 Likes

Reward
17
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

AltcoinHunter

· 01-23 22:57

First suppress and then rise? It sounds just as intimidating as last year's "bottom," but I still believe it. The key is to survive the 15-20% sell-off period and see who can make it to the end of the year rebound. How should I put it, this logic is consistent with my all-in strategy... but the problem is, I no longer have any bullets in my hand. Is Tom Lee reliable? I need to double-check that I haven't been cut. After the US stocks fall, crypto also drops; after crypto drops, I remember I should stock up on stablecoins. It’s always like this, always regret afterward. Instead of waiting until the end of 2026, why not find a few potential stars now to press down? Anyway, I’m already prepared to take a beating. Breaking the support and hitting the bottom is the real opportunity, provided you survive until that day.

View OriginalReply0

LightningSentry

· 01-22 15:04

First a drop, then a rise? Sounds good, but who can guarantee they'll really endure until that "rebound"...

View OriginalReply0

TokenomicsPolice

· 01-21 01:21

Another soothsayer? Saying "initial decline followed by rise" sounds nice, but who can guarantee a rebound in the second half of the year? --- 15%-20% decline? We've been through worse, no big deal. --- I've heard Lee's logic several times, each time claiming the opportunity has arrived, but what happened then... --- Wait, are you saying the crypto market will also adjust? Should I cut losses now or keep holding? --- The "initial decline followed by rise" is just betting that the Federal Reserve will turn dovish. That assumption itself is risky. --- It might drop at the beginning of the year, but who knows if it can rebound by the end of the year? Such predictions are just for listening. --- Just wondering, has this guy's 2024 forecast been accurate before? --- Instead of waiting for a rebound, it's better to start accumulating bottom-tier coins now. Don't get too hung up on the timeline. --- The escalation of geopolitical conflicts is indeed a fact, but using it as a trap in the crypto world is a bit far-fetched.

View OriginalReply0

DataPickledFish