Bitcoin defends the level of 85,000 USD – is this the beginning of the "buying fear" scenario?

The market situation is approaching a critical moment. Investors are faced with a choice: stay in positions and wait for gains, or reduce exposure in the face of a potential deeper correction. Meanwhile, uncertainty regarding Japanese interest rate policy is deepening risk-off sentiment. It is no surprise that on-chain Bitcoin [BTC] indicators are not showing a rebound similar to that of the second quarter. At that time, the STH NUPL BTC metric returned to normal after a two-month decline, but now it remains clearly negative.

The current trust crisis penetrates the network more deeply than before. Data shows that miner reserves have decreased by 900 BTC in just two days – a transaction worth approximately $76 million. Comparing this to production costs, it is clear: many miners are operating below the profitability threshold. On-chain signals indicate a capitulation phase. However, despite this pressure, BTC remains consistently above the $85,000 barrier – four weeks in a row in this range. This resilience raises an important question: is the classic “buy when others are afraid” pattern finally activating?

Whale intervention is shifting the market dynamics

In the current macroeconomic environment, the importance of large players is growing exponentially. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to the highest level in three decades. The consequence? Interest in spot Bitcoin is waning, and North American investors remain significantly hesitant. However, this volatility creates an ideal environment for shifting BTC supply dynamics.

Weaker positions are being eliminated from the market, and stronger hands are taking control of available supply. Statistics confirm this: nearly 50% of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization now comes from acquisitions made by whales. Realized capitalization reflects the price at which units last moved in the network. The fact that half of this value is attributed to recent transactions by large buyers indicates that a significant portion of the available supply has moved into more resourceful hands.

From a technical perspective, this rotation explains BTC’s resistance to downward pressure. Despite widespread fear and sell-off phases, Bitcoin maintains its support structure. If this trend continues, identifying the cycle bottom should no longer be so distant.

Key observations

• On-chain indicators signal market tension, but BTC price demonstrates hidden strength
• Nearly half of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization is driven by new whale involvement
• Capital flow from weaker to stronger holders reinforces the prospect of stabilizing the market bottom
• Macro turbulence creates conditions for supply rotation, which could prolong the current cycle