#Polymarket平台 Polymarket's shakeup has truly arrived. After reading this analysis, I understand that while prediction markets seem to have low barriers to entry, market makers actually face challenges far beyond those of ordinary trading markets.

Order book market making requires 24/7 monitoring, precise tracking of market prices, and rapid adjustment of orders—any slight delay in response can easily lead to being cut by a one-sided trend. More painfully, information asymmetry in these markets is particularly severe; insiders directly come to harvest your liquidity, making it a game that inherently lacks ethics.

Therefore, the seemingly profitable 0.2% fee is actually only reliably earned by truly professional players. Ordinary users trying to become market makers are basically just giving away money.

From the platform side, Polymarket and Kalshi currently hold significant firepower—one has raised $2 billion, the other $300 million, and they are still subsidizing and burning liquidity. With this scale, what can new projects do to compete with them? Capital, subsidy budgets, and compliance advantages—leading players dominate all.

Haseeb's statement that "90% of prediction market products will disappear by the end of the year" I now believe. This is not alarmist; it’s the reality. Instead of hoping for a hundred flowers to bloom, it’s better to bet on the leaders.