January in Bitcoin: Why History Doesn't Always Give the "Green Light" for Buyers

The year is beginning, and many traders are preparing to sell Bitcoin to “reset” for the new cycle. But before doing so, it’s important to look at what really happened in the past years during the first month.

January in Bitcoin: A Tale with Two Faces

The simple narrative: buy in January because it is a strong month. But data shows a more complicated story. Over the past decades, January has averaged a +9.76% increase, which sounds good. However, the median is only +9.54%—and that is key to understanding.

The difference comes from years with no average gains. In 2015, Bitcoin fell by 32.1%. In 2018, the decline reached 28.1%. And in 2022, January delivered a -16.9% loss. These three years alone show that “January is bullish” is not universally true.

Balancing this is 2023, where Bitcoin rose 39.9% in the first month, and 2020 with +29.6%. Even in 2025, January started with a +9.54% increase before the subsequent correction.

The Actual Pattern: Supply Dynamics and Psychology

The problem isn’t about “good” or “bad” months. It’s about what happens at the end of the previous year. Data shows that November is usually very strong (+36.6% average), while December is somewhat shaky (-2.68% median). This means many investors take profits at year-end, and once that supply is exhausted, prices can rise quickly.

This is where the real risk begins. If Bitcoin has already fallen from its peak (which reached $120,000-$125,000 in early October 2025) and is now moving around $91,170 (based on the latest market data, down 1.98% in the past 24 hours), traders face a delicate position.

The psychological level of $90,000 is not just a number. It’s a threshold where many orders are placed, and where late sellers try to exit. History shows that: when Bitcoin jumps in January from a lower position than its previous year’s peak, panic sellers finally realize they might have made a mistake.

Not Every January Is Equal

What needs to be understood is that not every January is the same. Some are bullish due to new money inflows and retail FOMO. Others are bearish because of profit-taking and year-end tax implications that come in the next quarter.

Currently, Bitcoin is in a mid-phase—short-term (7-day movement is -1.22%), but the 30-day return is +2.53%, indicating sufficient support. The 1-year performance of -10.01% provides context: long-term holders are still not in the green, and many may decide to sell in the first quarter.

The Lesson: Sell Early, Not Late

The most important lesson from January’s history is not “always go up” or “always go down.” The lesson is: if you plan to sell, it’s better to do so while there is momentum, not when others have already moved and created a crowded exit.

Traders who wait until January’s rally to sell often enter a bad situation. Instead, the pattern suggests that a smarter approach is to lock in gains at the end of the year or early January, before the market settles.

Bitcoin will continue to evolve, and January will keep bringing uncertainty. History is not a guarantee, but it offers perspective—and that perspective says not all January rallies are equal, and not all January sells are wrong.