Current Key Focus

The market is in a critical decision-making period, and the dynamics of the following indicators are crucial:
1. Key Price Level Battles:
· $101,000 (365-day moving average): This is the widely recognized boundary between bull and bear markets. A valid breakout is a necessary condition to initiate a new upward trend.
· $99,460 (short-term holder cost basis): Price fluctuations around this level will intensify and serve as a "reaction zone" for market sentiment. If the price stabilizes above it, short-term holders will turn from loss to profit, aiding confidence recovery; conversely, a significant drop below (e.g., below $89,500) may trigger panic selling.
2. Institutional and Derivative Market Trends:
· ETF Capital Flows: Watch whether spot ETF net outflows from the end of last year turn into stable net inflows, which directly reflect institutional demand.
· Derivatives Market: Steady recovery in open interest of futures and options contracts usually indicates renewed institutional participation and improved risk appetite.
3. Macro Environment Impact:
· Current geopolitical tensions (such as potential US-EU trade friction) and US monetary policy (interest rate trends, dollar liquidity) are important external factors influencing overall market risk appetite.
💎 Summary
The current market is searching for direction around $92,500, with bulls and bears fiercely contesting below the key resistance at $101,000. The bullish case is based on strong on-chain accumulation, while the bearish view is rooted in severe technical resistance and macro uncertainties.
Based on the recent price movements of Bitcoin, traders may consider entering long positions around $93,000, with targets of $94,000-$98,000 and the option to exit early if conditions are favorable.
For ordinary investors, the market direction remains unclear until the price clearly breaks above $101,000 and stabilizes, or effectively falls below the short-term cost basis. Maintain caution and closely monitor the above core indicators (especially whale activity, ETF capital flows, and key moving averages) for subsequent changes, which are more important than short-term price predictions.