#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 January 20 Gold Market Analysis

Last night from midnight to early morning was quite interesting — gold prices surged strongly to around 4680 and then slightly retreated with some consolidation, but overall the position remains firmly at a high level. Carefully examining yesterday’s morning performance, after a nearly hundred-point gap up, there was no obvious sharp decline; instead, the market digested the pressure through strong sideways movement. This "only rise, no fall" rhythm essentially reflects how strong the bulls' control is.

Geopolitical tensions combined with tariff disputes have jointly exerted influence, allowing gold to successfully break through key resistance levels. Open interest increased accordingly, and capital inflows accelerated significantly, creating a more optimistic market sentiment.

Looking at the longer-term trend, gold’s safe-haven attributes and asset allocation value continue to rise. Global central banks are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and the Fed’s rate cut expectations are heating up. The downward trend of real interest rates is clear, laying a solid foundation for gold prices. Although liquidity may decrease as the holiday approaches and short-term volatility risks exist, the overall bullish pattern remains unchanged, and each pullback is actually a good opportunity to enter.

On the hourly chart, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands continues to move upward, with the gold price running close to the upper band. The moving average system maintains a bullish arrangement, and the MACD has shown another wave of volume above the zero line, indicating that short-term momentum is still relatively strong. Although there was a pullback during today’s session, the support at 4650 can still hold. As long as it is touched, it’s a good entry point for long positions.

Key points to watch recently are the strength of the 4650 support and whether the 4680 level can be effectively broken through. Based on recent trends and in the absence of sudden major negative news, the market is likely to open high tomorrow morning with an 80% probability. Therefore, maintaining a bullish trading mindset is sufficient.

Trading suggestions: Short gold around 80-90, with targets at 50-30, and a close watch at 10 if it breaks; go long around 50-60, with targets at 80-90, and focus on a breakout above 4700-4710.