2026-01-19 22:33:05

I recently came across a data report indicating that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded a net inflow of 1.2 billion USD in the short term. This reflects an interesting market phenomenon.

Some time ago, the arbitrage logic of capital providers was very clear: buy spot BTC and simultaneously establish short positions in the futures market to earn risk-free returns through the basis. But now, the game has changed. The basis between futures and spot has significantly narrowed, which means that the seemingly stable arbitrage opportunity has been squeezed out.

The market is rapidly adjusting its pricing mechanism. The behavior pattern of large capital is shifting, reshaping the landscape of the BTC derivatives market. Behind this basis compression, it actually reflects market participants' reassessment of risk premiums.

BTC-0.25%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

ProofOfNothing

· 5h ago

The basis has been squeezed flat, this wave of arbitrage brothers need to find a new way out --- 1.2 billion in inflows is not small, but it feels like just the beginning --- Large institutions are adjusting their positions, while retail investors are still confused --- Futures and spot prices are so tightly linked, who still dares to take over --- Reevaluating risk premium? Basically, no one wants to be the sucker anymore --- Has the basis compression created more opportunities for small retail investors? --- Institutions are changing their approach, but what the next step is still to be seen --- Arbitrage space has been squeezed dry, and the market is self-healing --- Large funds are fleeing, retail investors are still chasing the rise --- The basis has always been a sickle, now the blade has become dull

View OriginalReply0

TokenomicsTrapper

· 5h ago

honestly the basis arb game dying is peak market maturation theater... actually if you read the flow data, that 1.2B is just institutions front-running the next dump cycle. called this months ago

Reply0

ser_we_are_ngmi

· 5h ago

The basis has flattened, and that previous stable arbitrage strategy is really over. 1.2 billion in inflows sounds like a lot, but it depends on how the funds are thinking. Wait, is this implying that big players are also starting to panic? I'm already tired of that brainless basis trading; the market is about to change. It feels like big funds are changing their preferences. Where's the next trap? Basically, it's a re-pricing of risk premiums; no one is falling for that anymore. This time, it's truly different. The derivatives landscape is about to be reshuffled.

View OriginalReply0

MoodFollowsPrice

· 5h ago

The basis pressure being flattened is true, the arbitrage space is gone, and big players are still holding on stubbornly.

View OriginalReply0

DegenWhisperer

· 5h ago

The basis has been flattened, and big players should switch gears. This move is quite interesting.

View OriginalReply0

RooftopReserver

· 5h ago

The basis being squeezed should rebound, so where else can the bears run to?