As everyone is still watching the ups and downs on the K-line, the real danger is quietly approaching.

It may sound a bit obscure, but there is an indicator that can see through the true pulse of the market—Bitcoin exchange flow momentum. It’s quite straightforward: comparing the total amount of Bitcoin entering and leaving exchanges each month (represented by the red line) with the average flow over the past year (marked by the green line).

If the red line stays above the green line, it indicates that funds are highly active on exchanges, and market enthusiasm is high; conversely, once the red line is suppressed by the green line, it’s like a weakening heartbeat, and a sluggish price often follows.

**What is the current situation? It’s a bit frightening.**

The red line has already confirmed a break below the green line. Even more heartbreaking is that in April, July, and September 2025, the market approached this dangerous line three times but was forcibly pulled back each time. This time, it didn’t hold.

This is not a good sign. From a data perspective, you can clearly see that—the bearish market sentiment is truly solidifying.

**Looking back at history.**

A similar situation occurred in June 2021, after the "5.19" crash, when the red line also dipped below the green line. There was a strong rebound afterward, but the current situation is completely different.

Back then, the panic was triggered by an event—sudden and fierce; now, it’s more like funds are gradually flowing out. The chip structure has changed, purchasing power is declining, and capital flow patterns are unrecognizable. The nature is different.

**The reality is harsh.**

As long as this indicator does not fundamentally reverse, any price increase should be treated as a "rebound" first. Even if the rise is significant, it’s hard to truly stabilize until the underlying logic is reversed.