2026-01-19 15:33:27

On-chain analysis机构最新发布的STH-NUPL指标（短期持有者与新投资者未实现盈亏比率）暴露了一个现象：自2025年11月以来，新入场的散户们始终在亏损的泥潭里挣扎。要让这群人翻身，比特币非得站上9.8万美元不可。

这听起来挺严酷的，但历史会重复。翻翻过往的熊市就知道——那些短期玩家在持续下跌中会慢慢缴械投降。2018年的熊市里，STH-NUPL指标一路砸到-0.6附近，大批散户割肉出局，实现巨额亏损。投机泡沫被无情清洗后，市场最终在底部孕育新机。2022年FTX崩盘那阵子更猛，短期持有者的实现亏损创下历史新高。弱手彻底出清后，比特币在1.6万美元附近找到支撑，随后一轮新牛市就此展开。

现在的剧情是否会再演一遍？关键还是看那些亏损中的散户能否扛住。

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CryptoTherapist

· 01-21 18:08

ngl this STH-NUPL chart is basically screaming "market anxiety at peak levels" rn... have you considered your emotional attachment to that entry point might be the real problem here?

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ApeWithNoChain

· 01-21 08:40

Retail investors are the ones getting cut again. Waiting for 98,000 until the Year of the Monkey? Still the same old story, those who can't hold on will never hold on. Those who didn't make it past 2018 are already gone before 2024.

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Fren_Not_Food

· 01-19 16:03

It's the same old story again: retail investors get squeezed, institutions scoop up the bottom, cycle repeats... How many times have you heard this?

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AirdropChaser

· 01-19 16:03

Here comes that old argument about history repeating itself again... It's easy to say, but only those who lose money should listen and not take it seriously.

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LiquidityHunter

· 01-19 15:50

Seeing this data at 2 AM, STH-NUPL directly dropped to -0.3, and the liquidity gap instantly opened. The arbitrage opportunity at the 98,000 level is truly remarkable.

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SellLowExpert

· 01-19 15:46

It's the same old story, history repeating? Buddy, the retail investors of 2018 have already left, and the new rookies can't hold on anymore.

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