Bitcoin in early 2025: how the money value calculator shows the real value of gains, but analysts warn about 2026

Cryptocurrency market analyst Willy Woo recently shared his assessment of the Bitcoin market situation, indicating a variable outlook depending on the time horizon. His observations concern both current positive signals and deeper concerns about market stability in the long-term perspective.

Short-term positive signals

According to an analytical model tracking investor capital flows, Bitcoin reached its bottom on December 24th of last year, and since then has been steadily strengthening. Woo points out that the effects of such movement in the market usually manifest with a delay of two to three weeks, which explains the current price dynamics. However, it is important to remember the short-term technical overbought condition, which temporarily restrains further growth.

A particularly significant signal is the rebuilding of liquidity in the derivatives market (futures contracts). After several months of stagnation, capital flows are beginning to re-activate, reminiscent of the dynamics observed in mid-2021, which preceded the next peak in BTC value in that market cycle.

Resistance levels and technical conditions

The current Bitcoin price hovers around $93,030 (as of January 19, 2025), with a historical maximum reached at $126,080. Key levels to watch are resistance at $98,000–$100,000. If these barriers are broken, the next significant target will be the all-time high (ATH).

Market liquidity cannot be underestimated — it conditions the market’s ability to sustain growth and avoid sharp corrections. Using tools such as a money value calculator, investors can better understand the real purchasing power of their positions and the actual value of invested funds relative to market volatility.

Concerns on the horizon for 2026

Despite current optimism regarding the period from late January to February, Woo maintains a bearish outlook for the entire year 2026. His doubts are based on a deep, fundamental problem — since the start of 2025, a systematic weakening of liquidity relative to price change dynamics has been observed. The market is in a critical phase where price increases are not sufficiently supported by capital flows.

This situation is potentially dangerous because it indicates a lack of genuine buyers to support growth. The market is in a “hot zone” of the final phase, where there is a lack of fundamental support for further increases.

Conditions for changing the perspective

Woo emphasizes, however, that his bearish forecast for 2026 is not final. A change in this assessment would be possible if, in the coming months, a significant influx of long-term spot liquidity occurs, breaking the downward trend observed over recent weeks. A key factor would be the inflow of real investments, rather than speculative short-term capital flows.

An important caveat is that the bearish market scenario has not yet been definitively confirmed. Confirmation would be a continuous outflow of capital from Bitcoin — a delayed but reliable indicator for signaling a market cycle top. Until such signals appear, the window remains open for a scenario change.