#比特币现货ETF The $4.57 billion net outflow from spot ETFs is worth paying close attention to. Let's break down the details: the $3.48 billion outflow in November coincides precisely with the 20% drop in Bitcoin, indicating that institutional risk aversion reacts very directly during price declines. Although the outflow slowed to $1.09 billion in December, combined with the latest $900 million continuous net outflow and the futures basis rate below the neutral level, these two signals suggest that market sentiment has not truly shifted.

More notably, the steady state of leveraged long demand—something that would typically be seen during a rebound—remained restrained even as Bitcoin surged back to $90,000, indicating that large investors lack confidence in the sustainability of this rally. The premium trading of put options further confirms that professional traders are locking in downside risk protection.

The key point to watch now is: if institutional funds continue to flow out or remain neutral, this rebound could easily be a trap. The next step is to monitor whether spot ETFs experience genuine net inflows, which would be a true signal of market sentiment recovery.