Looking at Bitcoin's current price level, to truly understand where it can go up to or down to, you need to see clearly who is holding the chips.

**Long-term HODLers are the "floor" of the price**

The group holding coins for six months to over a year has an average cost basis of $101,000. This is a threshold — Bitcoin needs to break through their heads to continue rising. But don’t underestimate these people; they have experienced a complete market cycle and have strong psychological resilience.

More importantly, the seasoned holders who have held for 12 to 18 months have a cost basis of $81,700. These people accumulated at the bottom of the bear market and now have a herniated disc. If the price retraces to this level, they will definitely be reluctant to sell. This has become a strong support level.

There is also a group of people who stubbornly held near the January high this year, also long-term holders. The more steadfast they are, the lighter the selling pressure above.

**Short-term traders create volatility**

In contrast, the group holding for 3 to 6 months has a cost basis of $114,650. Don’t underestimate this number — it’s exactly the immediate resistance level Bitcoin encounters during its rise. They bought near the high, and once the price rebounds to the cost line, the urge to break even is particularly strong. When a concentrated selling pressure appears, volatility follows.

Long-term holders are the anchor, short-term traders are the wind. Their trades are more easily driven by emotions, and because of this, they create short-term market fluctuations.

**Technical outlook**

If market momentum is sufficient, Bitcoin needs to first challenge the short-term resistance level. This tug-of-war is essentially a battle between two types of investors — one firmly bullish, the other eager to break even. Whoever’s willpower is stronger, wins.