#美联储货币政策 Polymarket data changes are worth paying attention to—Chairman Hasset's probability has fallen from a high level to 44%, while Wosh's support rate has quickly risen to 33%. This shift in expectations reflects the market's re-pricing of policy directions.

From an on-chain capital flow perspective, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve Chair candidate usually triggers institutional position adjustments. Wosh's stance on monetary policy compared to Hasset's may indicate a significant divergence in policy tone in the first half of 2025. It is recommended to monitor large ETH and BTC transfer records and exchange fund inflows during this period, as institutions often position themselves in advance for hedging.

Additionally, during this window before the candidate is announced in January, volatility may remain high. Based on historical experience, such policy expectation adjustments are often accompanied by short-term rapid movements, but do not necessarily indicate a directional judgment—waiting until the final candidate is confirmed to see the true on-chain capital reaction.