The four-year cycle theory circulating in the crypto market is once again facing a major test. A founder of a leading exchange recently made a bold prediction in a video: 2026 could become the most divided year in crypto history.

His logic is as follows — from a technical perspective, the traditional four-year cycle pattern indeed hints that a bear market may be coming. But from a macro perspective, the current policy environment has completely reversed, and the overall direction is to embrace crypto.

What's more interesting is that the Trump administration might loosen monetary policy and cut interest rates to stabilize the stock market. If these actions are implemented, they could break the curse of historical cycles and push the market into what is called a "super cycle."

In simple terms, this year's crypto market is like being torn apart by two forces: on one side, the cold wind indicated by technical cycles; on the other, the warm wind blown by policy support. Who will win? The market may give an answer beyond expectations.