The prediction market will also plunge. The odds and prices for the "US-Iran conflict" event have been smashed by about 70-80%.

To put it simply, it's one reason—American political figures' attitudes have changed again. The tone has softened, and market participants instantly panic and sell off, moving their chips out.

But this actually provides an opportunity for observation. Looking at this point in late January, it's quite interesting.

It's not about necessarily guessing that an event will happen. It's just that market participants all understand one thing: policy signals change rapidly, but the underlying logic remains unchanged. The current prices already fully reflect the market's pessimistic expectations. For traders willing to endure volatility, this is actually a position worth observing.

This is how prediction markets work—behind price fluctuations, they actually reflect the ups and downs of collective psychology.