#市场周期与价格预测 Recently, there has been a lot of speculation about predictions for next year. Some are optimistic about various assets taking off, while others point out the real challenges of liquidity fragmentation and high costs. What I want to say is — among these voices, the truly important thing to pay attention to is not how high prices will go, but that the market is undergoing a transition from speculation to maturity.

Take Ondo's tokenized stocks as an example. The discrepancy between on-chain slippage and actual liquidity highlights a real issue: no matter how promising a sector is, if the infrastructure isn't solid enough, risks will be amplified. Similar arbitrage opportunities may seem tempting, but they come with high thresholds, significant costs, and fleeting chances — all reminders that we shouldn't be blinded by short-term gains.

What worries me even more is the persistent prevalence of social engineering scams. Cases where impersonators pose as exchanges and cause losses of hundreds of thousands of dollars show that security education is more urgent than any investment technique. No matter how the market changes, safeguarding your assets should always come first.

My simple advice: be confident in the long term, but stay cautious in the short term. Allocate your positions reasonably, beware of hidden costs behind high returns, and always ask yourself, "Can I withstand the worst-case scenario?" Market cycles will always repeat, but only those who live cautiously enough will see the next spring.