#去中心化金融 Seeing Telegram launch a self-custody wallet in the US, TON surged by 10% in response. My mind drifted back to those years of DeFi.

In 2020, Uniswap and the Luna ecosystem in 2021 both attracted a large number of users by focusing on "reducing usage friction." At that time, we also saw price surges and a flood of new users. But looking back now, what truly determines the lifecycle is never the speed of user growth, but the depth of capital retention.

TON's current signals are quite interesting—user activity remains stable, stablecoin supply stays at around 960 million, but the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi is only 85 million. This ratio tells me a familiar story: people are coming, but the long-term capital hasn't followed. The price rebounded from 1.45 to 1.63, which is a positive technical sign, but this rebound is based on expectations of "real-world applications," not on liquidity depth support.

The lesson from history is that when wallet convenience improves but DeFi depth is insufficient, it often means users are only in the "trying" stage. Funds tend to flow out amid volatility. What I want to see is not how high the price can go next week, but whether the 85 million TVL can double in three months. If it remains in this range, no matter how low the friction, it won't change the fundamental issue of ecosystem fragility.