The Federal Reserve has recently been signaling intensively, and the core message is: at least until June, no rate cuts are in sight.

Last week, several key Fed officials took turns speaking out, emphasizing two points. First, the independence of the Federal Reserve must be fiercely defended; no one should interfere. Second, aside from some noise (you know who), the consensus is that the economy can still withstand it, and the inflation problem hasn't been truly solved, so policy tightening must continue. The market's expectation is very clear: don't expect rate cuts before June.

What does this mean for various assets? Let's start with U.S. stocks. In a high-interest-rate environment, any negative news easily triggers declines, but rebounds are hard to push higher. You will clearly feel that the market is shifting from the "waiting for the Fed to loosen" illusion to the reality of "seeing if companies are truly profitable." This is a transition from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven.

What about the crypto market? As a risk asset among risk assets, it is much more sensitive to the Fed's liquidity expectations than U.S. stocks. This "no rate cut before June" tone directly punctures the short-term hope for easing. The result is—an overall rally is basically no longer in play. Good news leads to a rebound being tightly suppressed, while bad news increases the risk of a sharp decline. The recent upward move? It might just be a weekly-level rebound; don’t expect a reversal.

Precious metals are also affected. With real interest rates so high, the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and silver naturally diminishes. However, there are enough major industry news to support gold and silver, but in the short term, don’t rush to chase highs.