The US market landscape: Falling unemployment and weaker employment evoke mixed feelings

December brought the first official economic data in many months without disruptions caused by the previous government shutdown, and their picture turned out to be complicated. The non-farm employment sector recorded a modest increase of only 50,000 jobs – a result below analysts’ expectations, who forecasted an addition of 60,000 new jobs. However, the labor market was not without reason preparing for less optimistic data.

Reviewing data from previous months revealed significant revisions. The November increase of 64,000 jobs was revised down to 56,000, while October’s loss was recalibrated from 105,000 to as much as 173,000 jobs. These numbers show that the US economy has faced greater difficulties in recent quarters than initially thought.

The labor market picture looked more promising when it came to the unemployment rate. The rate decreased to 4.4%, surpassing economists’ consensus of 4.5% and significantly improving from 4.6% in November. This improvement suggests some stabilization in the employment market, despite the overall weaker job growth.

Financial markets reacted cautiously to the published statistics. Bitcoin remained slightly above the $90,000 level without major shocks, while futures contracts on American indices showed moderate gains – Nasdaq increased by 0.4%. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds remained at 4.18%, indicating the market’s expectations remain unchanged.

The release of December data marks a return to the normal macroeconomic indicator reporting cycle. In previous months, market participants faced delays and gaps in official statistics caused by the federal government shutdown.

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook currently appears settled – the market almost fully prices in maintaining interest rates at the unchanged level in January, following the December rate cut. However, the potential next rate reduction in March sparks more discussion among market participants, with chances estimated at around 39% according to federal futures market tools.