#美国消费者物价指数发布在即 The Federal Reserve's Big Reversal? The Latest Market Betting Unveiled

There's been an interesting phenomenon these days—the market forecast about whether Powell will leave the Federal Reserve before 2028 has suddenly taken a dramatic turn.

According to the latest data from Polymarket:
• The probability of leaving before the end of May has dropped from 74% to 45%
• The probability of leaving before the end of the year has decreased from 85% to 62%

What does this indicate? The market is now betting that Powell is very likely to stay on.

The previously favored successor candidate has also been proven wrong. Former Fed Governor Wacht's popularity has suddenly surpassed that of the previous frontrunners. What's the logic behind this? Simply put, Trump wants to quickly cut interest rates and stimulate liquidity on a large scale, but an independent Federal Reserve "must" speak with data.

Powell has been adopting a "non-committal" strategy—holding the rules in hand, neither explicitly saying he will leave nor stay, just slowly waiting it out. Plus, various investigations into him haven't shaken his position; instead, they have reinforced the consensus within the Fed about independence. The market is beginning to realize that a professional and predictable policy implementer might be more valuable than any political variables.

For the crypto market, the core question is: how will future rate cuts unfold? If Powell continues to lead, the pace of rate cuts may become more steady and cautious, avoiding frequent abrupt turns. The overall direction of long-term liquidity easing is likely to remain, but the specific path will be more transparent and easier to predict.

One last point: the market is essentially voting with its feet for "certainty."