DASH 47 hours surge by 137%, when will it top out?

From yesterday to early today, Bitcoin experienced a rebound after a rise, with the highest approaching $98,000. Currently, the market price is around $96,800. This upward push can be said to be very strong for the bulls, and during the ascent, there was almost no retracement. Basically, it was a high-level consolidation after the rise, then the market continued to go up. Last December, that is, last month, we discussed the market situation. Perhaps the bullish trend has not arrived for a long time, causing many friends to forget what a strong bullish trend looks like. Many friends forget that once the bullish trend arrives, the entire market will surge, then consolidate at high levels, and continue upward. This is the first issue to face. The second is, if this upward trend has begun, based on the market feedback we observed at the time, most retail investors did not hold chips during this period. These chips include some mainstream spot holdings, some altcoin spot holdings, and some low-multiplier medium-term or long-term leverage, meaning retail investors are mostly immersed in intraday short-term volatility. There’s nothing wrong with this approach; the past month’s market feedback shows a focus on short-term trading, with relatively narrow high-probability ranges and low-volatility short-term trades, which is the correct approach. However, during this process, whether to hold some spot holdings or whether this trend is a daily-level rebound is a major point of market disagreement.

This round of Bitcoin has demonstrated the strength of the bullish trend, with support confirmed after a pullback near 90,000. After continuing upward to 94,000, a volume breakout occurred, followed by high-level consolidation. The amplitude of this high-level consolidation was effectively between 95,400 and 94,700, only about 700 points, less than 1% volatility. The market then continued testing near 98,000. Such a trend is undeniably strong. Therefore, in this situation, retail traders can only look at other targets for trading opportunities, which may have higher probabilities. Personally, I have also taken positions in some other targets during this wave, including one of the hottest targets recently, DASH.

DASH rose over 130% within about 40 hours after the strategy was released, from the evening of January 12 until the peak, over 40 hours, gaining more than 130%. This is similar to PEPE before. PEPE’s previous movement was a signal for the entire altcoin market. The first signal was that bullish strength still exists and remains strong. The second is that the altcoin market can start its rally at any time. The third is that even though PEPE’s market cap was around 30th in the crypto rankings at that time, a relatively high market cap, it was easy for it to surge over 80% within three days.

In this round, we are positioning in DASH partly because we have previously traded DASH several times, and partly because its movement before this rally was a warning sign. Also, during this round, we observe that the market lacked liquidity after the decline, with liquidity mainly released in bullish positions, satisfying many conditions for strategic positioning. We also entered a position in the 37.5-39 range early, and this move was very successful. DASH has already doubled.

Many friends are now asking whether DASH will continue to rise or has already peaked. First, look at DASH’s funding rate. Since yesterday, it has been indicating that the rally is not over; the rate has been relatively high, from the 60s to the 80s, which is a bullish sign. Second, ZEC was able to rise to such high levels mainly because of abundant subsequent capital supply after its initial surge, not just its internal momentum. That’s why ZEC could reach over 700 from 40, which many couldn’t imagine. DASH probably won’t reach such high levels because, at that time, ZEC’s rise was aided by favorable timing and conditions.

The good news for DASH is that its subsequent on-exchange funds are relatively sufficient, so it’s unlikely that the rally is over. Even if it is, the structure will likely show a pattern of one surge followed by a correction, with at least one significant rebound afterward. Therefore, from any perspective, the main strategy is to position for a bullish trend, which is not over yet. The third point is that the breakout structure of this DASH rally is relatively large. Before reaching 150, DASH had not experienced a daily breakout for 3-4 years. The previous peak at 150 was not the end of its movement, and analyzing the daily structure suggests that DASH’s rally is not finished.

As for when DASH might exit or what market setup would be ideal, the first point is that it’s difficult to discuss specific prices for exit during this wave. If you use the previous daily resistance levels and apply a reverse Fibonacci retracement, for example, the 1.618 level is around 87.7. If you want to exit at that level, it’s possible. We also see a clear short-term decline of over 10% at that level. Such a move is feasible. However, the overall trend goal is to realize high profits from a big breakout or to hold through the correction for further gains. From my personal perspective, as long as DASH’s triangle pattern or potential high-level consolidation structures do not break below the 55-50 range, dips are good opportunities to add or buy. There are no fixed points for exit; decisions are more based on on-exchange spot analysis and emerging exit structures. Currently, around 87, there is a clear signal, and other levels show follow-up capital and a healthy daily trend.

In summary, as long as DASH does not fall below the 55-50 range, dips are good opportunities. The daily structure is still incomplete. The simplest approach is to use Fibonacci retracement based on support levels to find entry points. We will continue to look for other altcoin targets and patiently hold.