Crude oil price under pressure: WTI oil price forecast at $55 support during Venezuela conflict

The market sentiment for crude oil appears tense. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed on Wednesday with significant losses of about 1.15% and is trading near the $56.00 mark. The reason lies in the geopolitical developments surrounding Venezuela and the associated hopes for an expansion of global oil production.

Geopolitical Factors Weigh on Oil Prices

Following military interventions by the US, President Donald Trump announced that American oil companies should assist in rebuilding the Venezuelan oil infrastructure. This announcement raises market expectations of increased crude oil production in the foreseeable future. For the oil price forecast, this means: in a stable demand scenario, additional supply leads to downward pressure on prices.

Alongside the economic restructuring, President Nicolas Maduro was detained on drug trafficking charges. This development underscores the seriousness of US measures and fuels speculation about fundamentally changed market conditions in the oil sector.

Labor Market Data as the Next Catalyst

The key impulse for the oil price forecast this week comes from US labor market data. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for December will be released on Friday and are considered the most important indicator of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. If employment figures are weaker, this could lead to expectations of interest rate cuts – a scenario that typically boosts oil prices.

Technical Analysis of WTI Oil Price

Current Situation: WTI is trading at around $56.10 and remains below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $57.47. The moving average shows a downward trend and thus acts as a dynamic resistance for recovery movements.

Momentum Indicators: The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 41.68 points. This value indicates weak momentum but does not yet signal oversold conditions. This limits the immediate upward recovery potential.

Scenarios: If the oil price breaks below the immediate support at $55.00, a deeper correction toward the psychological level of $50.00 could follow. This would reinforce the bearish phase.

A stable close above the 20-day EMA at $57.47, however, could shift market dynamics in favor of stabilization. In this case, an increase to the December high of around $60.00 is realistic.

The oil price forecast remains volatile and is influenced in the short term by NFP data and in the longer term by progress in Venezuelan oil infrastructure.